What we’re learning: HODL15Capital
Follow Nikolaus On X Here
For the past few weeks I’ve been with HODL15Capital on X, who has done a great job of posting fast moving market data about US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Recently, there have been two charts in particular that have caught my eye.
Nine months ago, the SEC authorized the Bitcoin ETFs area to trade, and since then, ETFs have seen significant inflows during eight of those nine months. Since their inception, these ETFs have seen an inflow of 312,488 BTC while miners have only created 169,942 new bitcoins.
Number of Bitcoin purchased by 🇺🇸 #Bitcoin ETFs every month👇$IBIT $FBTC $GBTC $ARKB $BITB $HODL $BRRR $EZBC $BTCW pic.twitter.com/mpeurOCUcR
– HODL15Capital 🇺🇸 (@HODL15Capital) October 1, 2024
These ETFs have been the fastest growing ETFs in history, as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said, with no real signs of slowing down, especially as we enter a period of time where Bitcoin has been historically bullish.
These ETFs cover all available BTC leaving many wondering: Who might be selling right now? And according to HODL15Capital, it appears that BTC holders are small, selling directly from the hands of ETFs and institutions.
🚨 Small Bitcoin holders continue to sell to ETFs again $MSTR 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/hV42fDVlps
– HODL15Capital 🇺🇸 (@HODL15Capital) September 26, 2024
We are seeing government pension funds, large institutions, wealthy investors and other large players buying and holding shares of these ETFs. Even ETF issuers like BlackRock are buying its Bitcoin ETF shares with their own funds. Long story short, I see smart money moving into this asset class and, even though that is the price of BTC, it pains me to watch small holders sell their bitcoin directly to institutions.
Holding Bitcoin for a long time has been proven to be one of the best ways to build wealth. This is a real opportunity for those who are interested in investing in their future, who may not currently have the proper savings, to start building wealth in a dominant way by accumulating BTC and holding the keys to their coins. Instead, these coins are very “closed” in these ETFs, where those who buy them can redeem their shares only in US dollars and do not get the benefits of the features that make bitcoin so unique (eg, freedom of trading worldwide. without permission from a third party).
Based on this data, I fear that many of these small bitcoin holders are passing up a great opportunity to build wealth by holding a slip of BTC in their fingers. Also, buy not buy bitcoin directly and hold it for yourself, as opposed to buying shares of ETFs, investors are missing out on what it really means to own an audit-proof royalty. Such sentiment tends to have the effect of making investors hold bitcoin for the long term as opposed to selling in the short term based on fear.
Smart money knows exactly what opportunity there is here, and they don’t care much about the freedom aspects of Bitcoin. They just filled their BTC wallets in the car that suits them best.
Cheap BTC doesn’t last forever. The big players will continue to accumulate large ETF shares as we reach new highs and beyond. If there’s one thing I’m leaving you with today: Don’t sell your BTC to companies, and hold onto the keys to your coins.