NFL Week 16 2024 picks, predictions: Fade hot Vikings, return Bills to cover

We are knee deep in the middle of the year where several teams are fighting for play in their respective conferences. Watching teams in those situations is always interesting because the stakes are so high.

I have my eye on one of those games in particular – Vikings vs. Seahawks. There’s a bet I think you should all consider making on this matchup, and it might surprise you.

Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 16 of the NFL.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, DEC. 22

Patriots @ Debts (1 p.m., CBS)

The Buffalo Bills are a heavy favorite this weekend. In the past three seasons, this Bills team has defeated bad opponents at home.

This year, they beat the Jaguars by 37, the Titans by 24 and the 49ers by 25 points. Last season it was the Raiders with 28 points and the Jets with 24 points.

You get the idea.

Now, with any system, there is some loss. The Bills didn’t pass the Giants in this spot last season and the Patriots late in the season. However, I like the Bills for two other reasons in this game.

The Patriots stink and don’t have any good players, except for a few – if that hand only has two fingers. These two boys are quarterback Drake Maye and quarterback Christian Gonzalez.

Everyone else is injured or not good.

The Patriots have lost four in a row, two close at home and two on the road. They had a bye last weekend, and were beaten by the Cardinals.

Simply put, they are terrible.

On the Buffalo side, you have Josh Allen. He is the clear favorite to win MVP this season. Every game, Allen looks to prove that he is the best QB in the world. He’s on a crazy heater right now, and the Patriots don’t have the defensive pieces to stop him.

Also, the Bills defense is bad right now, so Allen has to keep making stops to help his team win games.

I’m a little worried about the Bills defense holding the game to 14, but I’ll be throwing them a big lead and forcing Maye to make long turnovers as he tries to make plays.

PICK: Credits (-14) to win by more than 14 points

The Vikings @ The Seahawks (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Love this place. We’re going back to home for the Seahawks against a dome team that will be playing outside in the cold Pacific Northwest.

The Vikings are riding high after beating the Bears 30-12 on Monday night. If they win their last three games — including Week 18 against the Lions — they’re the No. 1 seed. The Vikings haven’t been in this situation with Sam Darnold at quarterback and all eyeballs are on the franchise.

And the truth is that I like to fade teams that have never experienced the pressure to do this in late December and run to the top.

The Vikings have played at home in three straight weeks after a three-week road trip that saw wins in Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago. Darnold and Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been sharp in those games, and he’s completing fewer passes with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions on the road this season.

The forecast calls for rain on Sunday in Seattle. What a shocker.

Also: A dome team out of the rain trying to live up to expectations? That’s exactly the kind of group I like to disappear with.

Looking at Seattle, it’s hard to pinpoint what the Seahawks do well. Do we know which Seattle team will show up this weekend? The Seahawks need a pick-six to beat the Cardinals and Jets. Then, they crushed the Arizona Cardinals before embarrassing the Packers on Sunday night.

They were blown away against the Packers, who scored touchdowns on their opening two drives. The Seahawks looked lost and played poorly, including quarterback Geno Smith, who went down with a knee injury. But I expect him to play this weekend.

Seattle needs a win to keep up in the NFC West and after that embarrassment on Sunday night, the team will play better.

PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by less than 3 points, or win outright

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle at the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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