NFL MVP Watch: Sam Darnold enters the MVP conversation

After jumping four teams in seven NFL seasons, Sam Darnold is playing his best football for the Minnesota Vikings this season. The USC product guided the Vikings to an impressive 3-0 record. He leads the league in passing touchdowns (8) and is second in passer rating (117.3).

Selected No. 3 overall by the New York Jets in the 2018 draft, Darnold was highlighted by NFL scouts as a prospect who will succeed in their programs due to his strong arm and ability to move. However, he has always struggled to take care of the ball, with 58 career interceptions.

But Darnold has been better so far this season, with two interceptions in three games. Darnold, 27, made a big mistake in MVP — going from 100/1 to 30/1 — which is why he leads this week’s MVP Predictions. Darnold’s success has even made a name for himself on social media.

The big question is: Can Darnold keep this pace going for the rest of the season? The reason I don’t think Darnold will turn pumpkin in the second half of the year is simple – he has the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson.

The LSU product is always open, and Darnold looks for him in critical moments of the game on third down and in the red zone. And because Jefferson gets so much attention, he creates opportunities and game designs for head coach Kevin O’Connell to dial up easy throws to other receivers.

This season, Darnold has completed 66.7% of his passes at Jefferson for 273 yards, four 20-plus-yard completions with three touchdowns and no interceptions, posting a 149.3 passer average.

Darnold’s rise leads this week’s MVP Watch:

Number 1: Sam Darnold, The Vikings
Current MVP odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $300 total)

Darnold will remain active for another important reason — he’s playing for a contract. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Vikings in free agency. And with Minnesota drafting JJ McCarthy in the first round this year as their quarterback of the future (he suffered a season-ending knee injury), Darnold is playing for a new contract and potentially a new home in 2025 this season.

Darnold’s 181-yard, four-touchdown performance in last week’s win over Houston helped him become the first quarterback in Vikings history to start a season 3-0 and throw multiple touchdowns in each game.

He faces the Green Bay Packers this week. Darnold threw for 341 yards, three touchdowns and no passes for a 128.4 passer average in his only career start against the Packers in his rookie season, a 44-38 loss while with the Jets.

Number 2: Josh Allen, Debts
Current MVP odds: +225 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)

Allen continues to fill the stat sheet, with 634 passing yards, seven touchdowns and a league-leading 133.7 passer rating. The Wyoming product has also rushed for 85 yards and two scores.

Allen passed Patrick Mahomes and is now the favorite to win the MVP Award. According to FOX Sports Research, Allen recorded his 11th game with four touchdown passes in the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, passing Jim Kelly for the most in Bills history.

Allen now has four career games with 250 passing yards, four touchdowns and 40 rushing yards, more than any player in NFL history – breaking a tie with Cam Newton.

Number 3: Saquon Barkley, The eagle
Current odds for MVP: +6000 (bet $10 to win $600 total)

With Christian McCaffrey injured, Barkley has taken over as the favorite (+350) to win the Offensive Player of the Year award, and is the fourth leading non-player in the MVP award race.

Barkley leads the league in rushing, with 351 yards and four touchdowns, and is second in the NFL in scrimmage yards with 404. He emerged as Philadelphia’s engine offensively. It’s still a headache that the Giants didn’t do anything to keep him on the roster.

Number 4: Baker Mayfield, The Buccaneers
Current odds for MVP: +5000 (bet $10 to win $500 total)

Mayfield had a hiccup during his team’s loss at home to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, but he’s still playing good football. Mayfield is fifth in passer rating (110.7) and tied for third in passing touchdowns (6) through three games.

However, Mayfield was sacked seven times against Denver and has been sacked 13 times this season, tied for third most in the NFL. Therefore, pass protection is a concern for Tampa Bay.

No. 5 Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Current MVP odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $30 total)

Mahomes is off to the worst statistical season of his NFL career. He completed 70% of his passes for 659 yards, with five touchdowns and four interceptions for an 89.9 passer rating – hardly MVP worthy. But the Chiefs are still 3-0 and Mahomes understands that it is still early.

“I feel like I didn’t play very well,” Mahomes said after his team’s Week 3 win over Atlanta. “And that’s not a math thing. I feel like I’m missing opportunities when I’m out there, and not throwing the ball where I want it to be.”

Mahomes gets a chance to throw it against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that will be without Derwin James due to suspension, and possibly Joey Bosa due to a hip injury.

Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, TJ Watt, CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, including Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers of ESPN and Seattle Seahawks of the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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