According to the IMD, seasonal rainfall was 108% of the long-term average (LPA) from June to September. Rainfall between 96-104% of LPA is considered normal. (Courtesy photo/PTI)
The four-month monsoon season is nearing its end with above-normal rainfall in India. Drought-prone areas of West Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kachchh have had the worst rainfall this season with +70% more rain than normal, while the main agricultural state of Punjab has seen a shortfall of around 28%.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Dr M Mohapatra, this was mainly due to 14 low-pressure systems that formed over the Bay of Bengal, most of which were moving through India, Rajasthan and Gujarat towards in the Arabian sea. Very few of them have migrated to the foothills of the Himalayas, hence the shortage in Punjab (-28%) and Jammu and Kashmir (-26%).
These weather systems are responsible for the most rainfall during the season, and can develop into ‘deep depressions’. “After a long time, we found many programs that have been strengthened. There were six such depressions, usually only 3-4 during the last 20 years. Overall, it was a good monsoon year. About 89% of the lower half of the country saw normal to above normal rains. We were below normal at the remaining 11%,” he added.
According to the IMD, seasonal rainfall was 108% of the long-term average (LPA) from June to September. Rainfall between 96-104% of LPA is considered normal.
The monsoon was powered by 14 low pressure systems compared to the normal 13, but lasted about 69 days compared to the normal 55. Six of them intensified and one of them turned into a rare storm, Asna, which caused catastrophic rainfall. writes about Gujarat and adjoining states of Rajasthan.
Regionally, only Northeast India recorded below normal rainfall (86% of LPA), while it was ‘above normal’ in northwest India (107%), central India (119%), and the peninsula southern (114% LPA).
By sub-category, deficits continued in Punjab (-28%), Jammu and Kashmir (-26%), and Arunachal Pradesh (-28%). Another major reason for the lack of rain in northern India was the southern location of the monsoon trough for most of the season. Also, there are no major western disturbances throughout the season, which would make up for the lack of Himalayas.
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL IN NORTH-WEST INDIA THIS WEEK
Monsoon has already started withdrawing over western Rajasthan on September 23. However, its retreat over northwestern states has been delayed again this year. Forecasters predict that it may take another week to withdraw from Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and parts of Uttarakhand.
But the IMD has still indicated a high chance of heavy rainfall in October – about 115% of the long-term average (LPA). Rains are likely to be ‘above normal’ in most parts of the country, except some parts of northeast and northwest India like Punjab.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS WINTER
Meanwhile, the southern peninsula is gearing up for the ‘winter monsoon’ – a northeasterly monsoon that usually reaches the southern coast on October 15. It is responsible for bringing 30% of the annual rainfall over the five divisions of Tamil Nadu-Puducherry. , Kerala, southern Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and coastal Andhra Pradesh during October-December.
According to the IMD, the region is likely to experience above normal rainfall this time – at least 112% above the long term average (LPA). “There is a good chance of ‘above normal’ rains across the southeastern peninsula this year. However, it may be normal in Tamil Nadu as the state usually does not get very good rains during a La-Nina year. However, the exact picture will be clear once the northeasterly storm starts,” an IMD official said on Tuesday.
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