Polls continue to predict a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, but within corporate America, top executives are preparing Harris to become the next president of the United States, according to a new CNBC survey of the C-suite. managers across the economy.
A majority of CFOs (55%) say Harris will win the election, according to the Q3 CNBC CFO Council Survey. That’s a reversal from the previous CFO survey in Q2 (when President Joe Biden was still in office) and a majority of CFOs (58%) believed Trump would win. About a third of CFOs (31%) now say Trump will win, while 14% remain uncertain about the election’s outcome. In the Q2 CFO survey, 29% of executives said they are not sure who will win.
Many in the business world are entering into the belief that Harris will win, and another recent CNBC survey of top economists and money managers also sees this election outcome as the most likely outcome.
The overwhelming belief that Harris will win comes despite an equal number of CFOs (55%) who told the poll that Trump is better for money and the economy. Only 17% of CFOs say Harris has a better financial plan. Inflation and interest rates (38%), followed by tax policy and regulation (both 24%) were the issues that CFOs considered the most important for their companies. Trade and tax policy, which are key to Trump’s rhetoric and which some economists say will lead to higher inflation, were mentioned by only 7% of CFOs.
The CNBC CFO Council survey was conducted between August 19 and September 19, the period that included the presidential debate. The survey is a sample of opinions from CFOs at large organizations, with 31 chief financial officers responding to the Q3 survey.
CFOs expect government to remain divided after the election, with nearly three-quarters (74%) of respondents saying Capitol Hill will be divided. Forty-five percent of CFOs predict that Democrats will continue to control the Senate and the GOP will eventually control the House, while another 29% expect control to shift between the parties, but the Hill remains divided.
This week, both candidates have been pressing their case on the economy, with Trump delaying a new corporate tax and Harris trying to sharpen his economic message in a speech to the Economic Club of Pittsburgh and an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle on Wednesday evening.
Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a briefing on the economy during a campaign event, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, September 25, 2024.
Kevin Lamarque Reuters
The CFO’s belief that Trump is better for the economy matches the former president’s lead in most polls on the issue, though Harris has managed to reverse that trend in recent polls.
On Wednesday, Harris’ campaign released an 82-page economic plan that expands on his consistent messaging about an economy built for middle-class opportunity. In a speech to the Economic Club of Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Harris discussed tax credits for companies that provide union jobs in urban manufacturing industries, such as steel mills, and tried to distance himself from GOP efforts to make him an extremist union member. left in the economy. “I believe that many companies are working hard to do the right thing for their customers and the employees who depend on them,” said Harris. “We must work with them to grow our economy.
Harris has called for higher corporate taxes, though not as high as President Biden is pushing, as he tries to find a middle ground between his economic policies and a plan that will appeal to middle-class people. Trump has vowed to lower corporate taxes to below 20%, below the level of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by his administration.
In an interview with Stephanie Ruhle on MSNBC Wednesday night, Harris said, “I’m not mad at anybody for being rich, but they have to pay their fair share — but the tax cuts for the billionaires and the top corporations in our country, and therefore not paying much attention to middle-class families, my view on the economy is, if the middle class is growing, the American economy is strong.
Harris has attracted high-level support from the business community, with billionaire Mark Cuban becoming an economic spokesman for his campaign in recent weeks, and told CNBC during a recent interview, “Kamala Harris is pro-business. Kamala Harris is for CNBC. Not Joe Biden.” They are very, very different on the topic when it comes to taxes, especially, but you walk in the middle, 100%.
A group of more than 80 corporate leaders, many of whom were senior executives, recently issued a letter of recommendation for Harris.
Harris emphasized his relationship with big business in Ruhle’s speech, saying “he’s spent a lot of time with CEOs. And I will tell you that the business leaders who are actually part of the American economic engine agree that people should pay their fair share and they agree that, if we look at a plan like mine, which is about investing money in the middle class, investing in new industries, investing in cost reduction, investing in entrepreneurs like small businesses, that overall the economy is strong and everyone benefits.”
In a speech on Wednesday in Georgia, former President Trump focused on an economic issue important to CFOs and the financial costs of business, research and development. Trump said he would extend R&D tax credits that allow US-based operations to have full costs in the first year of operation. The issue has been a key lobbying effort on Capitol Hill for the corporate sector after the 2017 tax cuts ended traditional R&D tax credits.
Efforts to recover the full costs of R&D, along with the Democratic push to increase the child tax credit, have had broad support among legislators, but there have not been enough votes to see new legislation in both the House and Senate for all the efforts in the past. years supported by President Biden and other top GOP members on the Hill, including the most recent successful effort in August.
Several CFOs who responded to the survey specifically cited the issue of R&D tax expenditures when discussing their tax priorities in relation to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is expected to expire in 2025. The survey also found CFOs citing the creation of new factories and facilities, as well as increasing R&D spending, as top priorities for capex over the next year.