As President Biden was about to leave a press conference following the announcement of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, a reporter asked him, “Who gets the credit for this, Mr. President, you or Trump?” Apparently, Biden stopped, turned around, smiled and said, “Is this a joke?”
His sarcastic response aside, his superiors are reported to have made endless efforts in their final days trying to conclude a to end the fighting between the two warring factions. Led by his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, it was undoubtedly an attempt to seal the legacy as his presidency ended.
Unsurprisingly, President-elect Trump wasted no time claiming that his election was the cause of this deal even before it was officially announced in the Middle East. His resignation announcement, however, the Biden administration had started the process, and Trump’s new Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, helped complete it. Witkoff even acknowledged that Biden’s trusted hand in the Middle East, Brett McGurk, played a key role in bringing the deal to a successful conclusion.
The devil, however, lies in the details. It remains to be seen how the details of the agreement will be implemented. According to the terms of the agreement, the Israeli army will begin to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, and Hamas will begin to release some of the hostages from October 7 (2023). In turn, humanitarian aid will begin to flow into Gaza, providing much-needed relief to the people in distress.
The deal is still subject to approval by Israel’s military cabinet. As of January 16, the identity of some of the hostages remains an unresolved issue, holding their last consent. However, Blinken, in a press conference, expressed confidence that the agreement will receive the necessary approval and enter into force on Sunday. The proposed six-week ceasefire could lead to a broader diplomatic effort aimed at lasting peace.
Israel’s bombing of Gaza designed to drive out Hamas, and its military might, has had an unintended effect: Hamas, according to the US, has used the dire conditions in Gaza to win almost as many battles as it has lost. Therefore, it has not achieved one of the main goals of the Netanyahu government’s war – the complete “destruction” of Hamas.
In particular, at least one key member of his military cabinet, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, has publicly expressed his disapproval of the deal. Another stalwart, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Israel should clearly reserve the right to return to Gaza if it deems necessary.
As both Israelis and Gazans wait to see the agreement implemented, an important question remains unanswered. Why was the agreement reached at this hour, in the twilight of the Biden administration? It is impossible to give a definite answer. However, both analysts in the US and key members of the Israeli opposition have argued that Netanyahu deliberately slowed down the negotiations once Trump was re-elected to the presidency. They argue that as the most astute conservative in American politics, he must have concluded that a deal reached shortly before Trump took office would give him greater leverage over the future of the Palestinian question.
Such a thought is hardly a dream. Among other things, during the first Trump administration, Israel’s long-standing request was granted. In December 2017, the US recognized Jerusalem and not Tel Aviv as the capital of the country and the US Embassy was also moved to the city. In addition, in 2019, the Trump administration recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights.
Trump has repeatedly said in the past few weeks that there will be “hell to pay” if the Israeli hostages are not released before he takes office on January 20. This message, of course, was not lost on Hamas. In addition, the weak leadership of Hamas may have thought that if Trump is inclined to grant unusual leeway to any Israeli government, it would be best to conclude the cease-fire as long as the Biden administration is in office.
This deal, if it goes into effect as planned, will bring an end to this deadly war, at least for the next few weeks. What happens after that will largely depend on two important factors. First, the degree of latitude the Trump administration is showing that it is willing to give the Netanyahu government in dealing with Hamas and the Palestinians in general. Second, it will also depend on Netanyahu’s ability to hold together his tumultuous government and his willingness to appease hardline members of his coalition as he seeks to ensure his political survival given his legal problems.
Sumit Ganguly is Senior Fellow and directs the Huntington Program on US-India Relations at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
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