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Guessing about The Bitcoin bull market is over were all over the crypto market, especially as the price failed to reach the March high above $73,000. To provide the most compelling case for this narrative, the crypto analyst released a Bitcoin bear case a scenario that could see the pioneer cryptocurrency drop to $28,000.
The Bitcoin Bear Case Revealed
On X (formerly Twitter) postedcrypto analyst and Position trader Bob Loukas reveals the “Bitcoin bear case,” revealing unusual and bearish condition of Bitcoin rather many commentators have suggested. Basing his bearish stance on cyclical theory, Loukas proposes that Bitcoin may be part of a 16-year cycle, with the current market marking the last four-year phase of this cycle.
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The analyst suggested that this four-year phase could end in two ways – the distribution phase, where high prices then the decline, or rising phase, where Bitcoin experiences a final rise before the decline begins. Loukas revealed that in the season cycle trends can help predict or provide information on future cryptocurrency price movements, stressing that “there is no law of force” that guarantees that the price of the asset will always rise.
The analyst aims to lull investors into believing that Bitcoin will last forever without going down. He asserts that a bear cycle it is inevitable at some point, although the timing remains uncertain.
Loukas identified certain price movements on his Bitcoin chart that could act as a bearish signalsuggesting a possible decline. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin may drop to new lows approximately $28,500 in 2026. He also predicted that after a period of evolution including the price goes down and rising, the cryptocurrency could rise to $59,500 in 2027.
For more clarification, Loukas proposed a story, suggesting that if Bitcoin were to close below the 10-month Moving Average (MA) during “bull market,” can be cause for concern. Similarly, a monthly close below the $58,800 mark would indicate the start of a possible bearish cycle.
The crypto analyst estimated a 10% to 15% chance of this bearish situation occurring, stressing that it was a possibility and not a certainty. He made that clear when he believed current market cycle he relies on the best case scenario based on historical evidence, always considering other scenarios. This approach is likely due to the inherent uncertainty of the crypto market as well known volatility.
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Analyst Sees Selling Activity Boosting BTC Downtrend
While presenting his Bitcoin bearish stance, Loukas revealed that broad interest in cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin has waned significantly. He pointed out that there is a lack of new investors, and this an exhausting enthusiasm It would be a big challenge for Bitcoin to generate new growth capital.
According to Loukas, unpopularity of retail investors it may be from a change in mood. The adoption of cryptocurrencies has been reduced to mere speculation, and few people believe in their transformative power.
The featured image was created with Dall.E, a chart from Tradingview.com