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Crypto analyst Bob Loukas released a new video analysis titled “No Bull.” In the video, Loukas examines the current state of the Bitcoin market, addressing the growing concern about the possibility of a bullish cancellation.
Loukas begins by acknowledging the long-term consolidation of Bitcoin’s value. He notes that “now there is fear entering the market,” partly due to things like the Bitcoin ETF being “long out” and the halving “coming and going,” without leading to a price increase.
Is The Bitcoin Bull Ending?
Loukas notes that while mainstream markets are performing strongly—“the stock market is making dramatic gains every week” and “even gold is making all-time highs”—Bitcoin continues to “fall apart,” and altcoins are “dying a lot. slow death.” He notes that “the only thing out there that really works are the really speculative memecoins,” contributing to the negative sentiment in the crypto space.
However, he considers this development to be “normal,” stressing that despite these challenges, Bitcoin remains “close to the all-time high from the previous cycle.” Discussing the eight months of Bitcoin price consolidation, Loukas interprets this period as a bullish sign. “Eight months of consolidation is actually pretty good if the timing is right in a four-year cycle. The sentiment is good, it’s reset; the fundamentals, the macros, I think they all look good,” he said.
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Loukas also highlights that the market is “23 months” since the last cycle down in November 2022, “just shy of celebrating 24 months or 2 years of this cycle,” which should end in November-December. 2026. He acknowledges “a little panic entered the market” following a “strong, very frothy period” from the ETF approval leak in September-October 2023 to the March 2024 peak.
One of the main fears, according to Loukas, is that Bitcoin made its last high in the last seven months in March, and since then, “we have been building these low figures every month and to some extent we are building a low level. structure.” This has caused concern among investors who “entered the market way too late, waiting for confirmation,” but found themselves “locked out when the market continued this move for five straight months,” without giving an opportunity to buy during the dip.
He points out that many investors “got into altcoins in the recent period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,” leading to a situation where, despite Bitcoin “still going up about 3x from the bottom,” a lot of people feel that “ they didn’t produce any kind of value in this cycle” or “lost money this time.” Loukas considers this situation “really normal from the point of view of cycle structure.”
He emphasizes that during this period of efficiency, the market did not experience a “30% decline at any time,” and that the “biggest decline” was “based on most of the time and was only about 20% from peak to peak before.” to make new highs.” This unusual behavior “put a lot of people off” and “made it difficult for people to get in,” as they “wanted to buy on a dip that never really happened.”
Loukas suggests that the current merger is a necessary phase of “emotional reset to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.” It is important to see that Bitcoin “has been sitting here for 23 months, almost 20% or so from the all-time high of the last four-year cycle back in 2021,” which makes it feel “more ready for the next phase of the four-year cycle than anything else. “
He also draws parallels with previous cycles, noting that from the cycle low in December 2018 to the first point where Bitcoin made new highs, “it took 23 months for the price to reach a four-year cycle high above that.” Similar patterns are seen in previous cycles, with periods of “nearly 25 months” and “nearly 22 months” to reach new all-time highs. In contrast, the current cycle achieved this milestone “in just 16 months, very quickly,” which he attributes mainly to ETF issues that “forced buyers to enter earlier in the cycle than usual.”
Loukas believes that this accelerated timeline has created a dynamic where “we now have to circulate more coins,” allowing “more whales, old timers” to “open up” and “come out and circulate,” while “institutional players, large account players they have been hoarding those coins at this time. ” He sees this as “a matter of timing more than anything else,” describing the current period as a process in which the market “finally erases all that bullish sentiment” from the previous phase, thus allowing “a complete separation of one phase of the cycle to this phase of the cycle”—that is, “down in the middle of the cycle.”
When will the BTC Price come out?
Overall, Loukas is still very optimistic: “So far in this four-year cycle, I don’t see anything that has changed that route, there is nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is different from the last cycles.”
He cites several factors that support his view of stability, including “the large penetration of Bitcoin, most of the institutional players,” and the acquisition of large sales by entities such as “the German government” and “the US government,” which did not have a significant impact on the price. Loukas insists that “the price has only dropped by 20%; it is well managed.” He also points out that “the ETF is still there; it will be pushed to independent counsel channels,” and “there is time; the macros, the basics are there.”
Loukas is very excited about the cyclical patterns, noting that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explains that “the first year surprises everyone, it does a lot of things. The second year seems to stand still because it includes the first year of benefits. And the third year is the year of mania. And right now, starting next month, we have a year of high-level mania. “
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He predicts that “in the next 90 days… we’re going to get off this list; we will go out and look higher.” Once this happens, he believes that Bitcoin “will not look back,” anticipating a period that “may only see one or two red candles every month and mostly green candles.” While he refrains from giving specific target prices, he admits that reaching “somewhere between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”
Loukas emphasizes that the focus should be on “timing and sentiment,” aiming for a move “to the range where previous cycles peaked,” which has been “very consistent in about 35 months since the last low.” This period would place the expected peak around “October of 2025,” giving “another 12 months the expected or anticipated peak.” He notes that this is not planned and that the peak may come “three, four, five months in advance,” as market movements “can come in many different ways.”
Turning to the immediate future, Loukas admits that the next two months are “a little bit muddy,” and “there are a lot of factors that are still in play right now.” He points to the upcoming US election on November 4, noting that “Trump and the GOP have been pushing crypto and Bitcoin,” and that “the market will react very well to the GOP winning the election simply because of their stance on crypto.” But -well, he clarifies that he doesn’t think it “matters at all” who wins, since Bitcoin has succeeded even when “governments hate it so much.”
Loukas speculates that the market may “lean sideways into that period in November,” and that a significant move may not occur until after the election. He suggests that “we still have three to four weeks of some sideways action,” and “would be very surprised if this market could go into $70,000 before the election here in the US.”
At press time, BTC traded at $60,699.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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