Vice President Kamala Harris, left, at the White House, Washington, on July 22, 2024, and former President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, on August 15, 2024.
Nathan Howard Jeenah Moon | Reuters
For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is considered more likely than former President Donald Trump to win the US presidential election, according to a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday.
The 27 respondents to the survey included investment strategists, economists and fund managers. Of this group, 48% see a Harris victory as a possibility, while 41% believe Trump will win.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 14, a few days after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump.
The latest forecast marks a departure from a previous CNBC Fed Poll released in late July, where 50% predicted a Trump victory and only 37% believed Harris would be elected president.
The July poll was released nine days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.
Last month, when Biden was still in the race, 48% viewed Trump as the clear winner, while 35% predicted Biden would be reelected. Another 17% were unsure or did not know.
Since Harris jumped into the race unopposed in late July, his presidential campaign has been playing out the vice president’s economic platform and policy proposals. With less than 50 days to go before the Nov. 5 election, the high cost of living remains a top issue for voters, according to national polls.
Harris is focused on growing the middle class and reducing consumer spending, including providing housing subsidies, expanding tax credits and deductions, and reducing what he sees as corporate “price gouging.”
Meanwhile, Trump fought to extend and deepen the tax cuts of his first term, imposing a tougher tax policy on all imports and ending some of the Biden administration’s infrastructure investments.
Fifty-six percent of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey believe a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market than a Harris administration.
Predictions change when the question is about the broader economy. Here, 44% see Trump as the best economist overall, vs. 41% of Harris.
“Assuming that Trump intends to follow through on his proposals, broad taxation and mass deportations, or deportations of immigrants, could increase inflation and slow down the economy in a way that a recession might,” said Joel Naroff. , president of Naroff Economics LLC.
Apart from economic problems alone, in the question of which candidate is the best candidate for the national election, 52% of the respondents believe that Harris will be the same, while only 37% see Trump as the best candidate for the United States.
“Assuming that Trump intends to follow through on his proposals, broad taxation and mass deportations, or deportations of immigrants, could increase inflation and slow down the economy in a way that is likely to follow a recession,” Joel Naroff. president of Naroff Economics LLC, wrote in response to the survey.
“Besides, the proposals of the two candidates are very different for the winners compared to the losers, rather than their impact on the overall economic growth,” he added.
Respondents also predicted that Harris’ economic proposals would improve on the budget deficit and trade policy. They gave Trump high marks for how his policy proposals would affect business regulation, inflation, jobs and taxes.
Regardless of who occupies the White House, the president’s policy agenda has only a partial influence on the health of the US economy.
For some, that’s a good thing. “Because of the bad economic policies promoted by Trump and Harris, we really need the hope of a different government. Otherwise, the deficit and the rate of inflation are both higher,” wrote Robert Fry, chief economist at Robert Fry Economics LLC.
Overall, respondents ranked the presidential election the sixth most dangerous for the US economy out of eight possible choices. The top economic risk was the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates too late, or too little.
On the question of Fed independence, 100% expect Harris to respect the independence of the Federal Reserve. Only 42% believe the same about Trump.
“The independence of the Federal Reserve could be a real problem under Trump, but we should note that there are only three branches of government specified in the Constitution: the legislative, judicial, and executive branches,” wrote Richard Bernstein, CEO of Bernstein Advisors. . “There is no fourth branch called the Fed, so the Fed has always been as independent as the three established branches want it to be.”
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020 at its meeting on Wednesday.