The launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 was heralded as an important moment in the market. Many expected these products to open the floodgates of institutional money and send Bitcoin prices higher. But now, a year later, have Bitcoin ETFs delivered on their promise?
For more depth on this topic, check out the latest YouTube video here: Have Bitcoin ETFs Lived Up To Expectations?
A Strong Start
Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than 1 million BTC, equivalent to $40 billion in assets under management. Even when accounting for outflows from competing products such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has seen more than 400,000 BTC withdrawn, the net inflow is still significant at around 540,000 BTC.
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To put this clearly, the rate of inflows far exceeds what we saw when the first gold ETFs were launched in 2004. Gold ETFs earned $3.45 billion in their first year, a fraction of Bitcoin ETFs’ revenue of $37.5 billion over the same period. . This highlights the strong institutional interest in Bitcoin as a financial asset.
Bitcoin’s Growth Year
After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the initial price movements were not smooth, and Bitcoin briefly fell by almost 20% in a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. However, this bearish trend quickly reversed. Over the past year, Bitcoin prices have risen by nearly 120%, reaching new highs. In comparison, the first year following the launch of gold ETFs saw a 9% price increase for gold.
Following the Gold Fractal
When calculating Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading schedule, which results in approximately 5.3 more annual trading hours than gold, a striking similarity emerges. By overlaying Bitcoin’s first year of ETF price action with gold’s historical data (adjusted by trading hours), we can see almost identical % returns. If Bitcoin continues to follow gold’s pattern, we could see an 83% price increase by mid-2025, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price to around $188,000.
Institutional Strategy
One interesting insight from the Bitcoin ETF has been the relationship between fund inflows and price movements. The simple strategy of buying Bitcoin on positive ETF inflow days and selling on outflow days has consistently outperformed the traditional buy-and-hold approach. From January 2024 to today, this strategy has returned 130%, compared to ~100% for a buy-and-hold investor, an outperformance of about 10%.
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For more information on this admissions center strategy, watch the following video:
Using ETF Data to Win Bitcoin [Must Watch]
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Although Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than 1 million BTC, this represents only a small fraction of the total circulating Bitcoin of 19.8 million BTC. Companies like MicroStrategy are also contributing to the institution’s adoption, collectively holding hundreds of thousands of BTC. However, the majority of Bitcoin remains in the hands of individual investors, ensuring that market volatility is still driven by supply and demand.
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The conclusion
In one year, the Bitcoin ETF has exceeded expectations. With billions in revenue, significant impact on valuation, and increasing institutional adoption, they have solidified their role as the main driver of the Bitcoin market narrative. While some early skeptics were disappointed by the lack of immediate explosive price action, the long-term outlook remains very bullish.
Comparisons with gold ETFs provide a solid roadmap for Bitcoin futures. If the gold fractal remains true, we may be on the verge of another big rally. Coupled with favorable macroeconomic conditions and growing institutional interest, the future of Bitcoin looks brighter than ever.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.