In a story within the limited prediction market category, a researcher has accused a crypto bettor, who operates under the pseudonym ‘Fredi9999’ or simply ‘Fredi,’ of significantly manipulating the odds of former President Donald Trump on the crypto platform Polymarket. In the past two days, Trump’s chances of winning have increased from close to Vice President Kamala Harris to 60.7%, while Harris’s chances have dropped to 39.3%.
The allegations were brought to light by Domer (@Domahhhh), an anonymous secret political bettor, who explained everything he found in the extensive music on X. Domer said: “A long-winded and endless update on Fredi9999 – a person or an organization – automatically raises the price of Trump in prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I managed to contact him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. A sensitive guy! We’ll get back to that.”
Is Crypto Plattform Polymarket Used?
Domer elaborated on the alleged fraud scheme, insisting that Fredi was betting heavily on Trump alone, reportedly more than $25 million. This influx of money introduced a premium of about 5% to 8% to Trump’s odds, making betting on Trump more expensive while simultaneously lowering the cost of betting on Harris by the same margin. According to Domer, this strategy disrupts the supply and demand balance in Polymarket, resulting in distorted prices that do not accurately reflect the broader market sentiment.
Further analysis by Domer revealed that Fredi9999 is not confined to one account. Instead, multiple accounts—PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo—are believed to be controlled by the same entity, collectively holding positions worth approximately $28 million. The synchronization of large deposits from the crypto exchange Kraken, usually in amounts of $500,000 or $1 million, to these accounts before investing only in markets associated with Trump suggests a concerted effort to influence market outcomes.
Supporting this claim, @fozzydiablo, another researcher, identified patterns across all four accounts that suggested control by a single user. Domer cited @fozzydiablo’s findings, linking to a detailed analysis.
The data suggests that one business was buying all the Trump-related badges @Polymarket a total of $26 million.
– Fredi9999
– PrincessCaro
– Michie
– Theo4If we look at their betting activity we can analyze if the accounts are betting.
The most interesting thing is that if… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW– Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024
Domer also speculated on Fredi’s identity and motivations for his actions. Observations regarding linguistic patterns in Fredi’s comments and related accounts—such as the use of both British and American English spelling and special spacing around punctuation—suggest a possible French origin. Domer put it: “The AI thinks the strange writing/spelling/misspelling points to a French man who learned British English and spent time in America.”
However, Domer acknowledged the possibility of ulterior motives, including a scenario where Fredi could be part of a larger scheme or even an elaborate stunt designed to hide the true intentions. The researcher emphasized the unprecedented nature of betting all of $25 million on one person, highlighting the need for further investigation to uncover the underlying motives.
Domer wrote: “Maybe it’s all a LARP and someone is just having fun pretending to be all this, trying to appear stupid on purpose.” Maybe it’s connected to Elon [Musk] or another big GOP megadonor. I don’t know, and it’s a bit of a game to figure out what’s going on here. Maybe actually [famous crypto trader] GCR despite GCR saying he is not. GCR’s guess is that it’s someone trying to send Bitcoin higher, which is a good explanation.”
The revelation comes amid criticism from Hasu, a strategic advisor to crypto project Lido Finance and trade lead at Flashbots. He commented on X: “Polymarket is great, yes, but I feel like it’s time to call them out on their bullshit of putting ‘volume’ front and center, while hiding open interest everywhere on their website. […] This market is not deep on a traditional scale yet, especially given the size of the event. Its misleading reporting and the huge reputation thrown by the media makes it seem so. And this assumes that there is 0 false volume in Polymarket. “
Historically, every important bet has occasionally had an effect on the speculation markets. Domer talked about past events from the US presidential elections of 2008 and 2012, when big bettors tried to influence the market chances of John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. Both cases did not change the results of the election, leading to doubts about the effectiveness and impact of this large-scale betting.
Domer concluded his analysis by questioning the wider implications of Fredi’s actions: “Why do I care about this? Good question! It is important to know who you are betting on. Is this a very smart trading firm and should I be afraid? Is this idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a margin and 0 other reasons? It’s hard to figure out what’s going on here.”
At press time, BTC traded at $67,646.
Featured image from Reuters, chart from TradingView.com