UFC 328 goes down this Saturday from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. In the main event, Khamzat Chimaev will put his middleweight championship on the line against former champion Sean Strickland.
The formation of Chimaev and Strickland was violent, to say the least that bad blood will be shed in the Octagon on Saturday night.
Thursday’s press conference presented high expectations for insanity as the two hurled insults at each other for 30 minutes before it all culminated in Chimaev kicking Strickland, leading to the pair being quickly escorted off the stage by security and law enforcement.
On Friday, the UFC didn’t even allow a fight between the two. Usually it’s the last face-to-face between the players, but when Chimaev hit the stage and stepped off the scale, he was brought back by multiple bodyguards who wouldn’t let him get within 10 feet of Strickland as the American continued to hurl insults through the microphone.
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There is also a second title fight on Saturday night that is flying under the radar. Flyweight champion Joshua Van is looking to defend his title for the first time when he takes on challenger Tatsuro Taira. Van won the title in dramatic fashion when Alexandre Pantoja was fatally injured minutes into UFC 323 in December. Now, Van, the second youngest champion in UFC history, looks to erase any doubt from fans that he is a paper champion.
With so many big fights topping the card, there will be a lot of interest in the fights in the sports books. With that in mind, we’ve revisited all five card fights to identify our best bets for each.
After a poor 1-4 record for our UFC 327 best bet, we sit at 9-11 for the year. We now look ahead to this weekend with a goal of getting back into the black, with our only remaining rule being that all bets must be odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s draft picks with DraftKings Sportsbook.
UFC 328 fights to watch: The best undercard fights to catch before Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Shakiel Mahjouri
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens
Over 2.5 cycles (-160)
I don’t think there are many chances of submission in this fight. In fact, there probably won’t be any conflict. Green and Stephens are both behind the deep side of their careers and both enjoy standing up and trading strikes. There is certainly a chance that any man could be stopped in one of those conversations. Both men faced brutal suspensions from their jobs and did the same. Still, this feels like a fight where neither man fully breaks the other and the fight goes to the scorecards, where Green should get the win, but the pass feels like a safer bet than taking Green by decision (+110).
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
Sean Brady’s Money Line (-175)
The stats going into this fight are pretty straightforward. Brady averages 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time, and while Buckley plays a respectable 72% defense, better wrestlers have been a real problem for him. Kamaru Usman took Buckley down four times in his last fight, and when the fight went down, Usman held the upper hand for about 13 minutes. That’s the blueprint, and it’s one that Brady can easily follow if he sticks to the game plan. As long as Brady can safely navigate the space on his feet, close range and get to Buckley’s body, this should be a straightforward battle.
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Alexander Volkov by decision (+130)
Volkov is in a strange place. He ranks among the most consistent heavyweights in the world but rarely gets talked about. Since the start of 2021, Volkov has gone 7-3, with the three losses coming to Tom Aspinall and Cyril Gane (twice). Gane’s second loss was highly controversial, with only one member of the media following MMA Decisions calling Gane’s fight, and 19 members of the media leaning towards Volkov’s direction. That battle provided a good example of the negative consequences of questionable judgment. Had Volkov won, he would likely have fought Tom Aspinall for the heavyweight title at UFC 321 instead of Gane. Then Aspinall is not abused in both eyes and is sidelined, and UFC Freedom 250 does not include an interim title fight between Gane and Alex Pereira.
Regardless, Volkov has really settled into his style, using his length and endurance to frustrate opponents. Cortes-Acosta has been in an interesting contest lately, but Volkov presents problems that some of his opponents don’t. Cortes-Acosta has a lot to gain against Volkov, and I’m not sure he can do that.
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Over 3.5 rounds (-125)
There are many unanswered questions for both men. While both have a few fights against top level fighters, most of their wins have come against guys outside of that level, which is understandable given their age. Taira is the favorite, and that feels right, but I don’t know how confident I feel about him in this fight and not at his current price. There will be some big exchanges early on, but this fight has every chance of settling into a tactical battle with big moments. Take charge and hope no one plants a bomb early.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Khamzat Chimaev by posting (-105)
There’s really no reason to think this fight is going well for Strickland. Strickland is defending takedowns at an almost 75% clip while Chimaev is getting 5.29 takedowns in 15 minutes. Chimaev’s takedown game is also completely different from what other fighters bring. Strickland will look for movement and use his fist, but he doesn’t land with the power of one punch to stop Chimaev from closing the distance. Once Chimaev gets his hands on Strickland, he will take him down. On the ground, Strickland can accept the position and try to get it out without a submission or he can try to hustle, which is where Chimaev thrives. Expect Chimaev to put Strickland on his back and grind until there is something he can bend, twist or squeeze for the finish.
Who wins Chimaev vs. Strickland, and how does the fight actually end? Visit SportsLine now for detailed picks and analysis from an unparalleled expert with over $21,000 in UFC picks as of May 19, 2018, and find out.
