Bitcoin (BTC) has faced a historically bad start to the month of October, which has been impacted by the growing political tension in the Middle East. Despite this, the bulls remain hopeful of a change later in the month.
Bitcoin “Uptober” Gets Off to a Bad Start
The leading digital asset by reported market cap had a tumultuous start to its best-performing month since 2013. The chart below shows that October has historically been the most valuable month for Bitcoin, offering an average return of 21.2%.
Yesterday, BTC briefly dipped below the key $60,000 level before rallying to $61,179 at press time. During this see-sawing price movement, BTC saw the liquidation of more than $32 million, while the issuance of ETH stood at just over $18 million.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen by 6.9%, while major altcoins have lost the most. Ethereum (ETH) is down 11.2%, Solana (SOL) is down 10.9%, and BNB is down 9.9%.
According to data from CoinGlass, most of the BTC price appreciation usually occurs in the last half of October. The chart below shows that the first days of October have historically not been very good for BTC prices.
Notably, October 1 has had Bitcoin only once since 2013, while October 2 has shown gains five times out of eleven. In contrast, recent days, such as October 28, have brought good returns nine times out of eleven, followed by October 20, which has had eight good days out of eleven.
It is worth noting that the cheapest month of Bitcoin, September, closed with gains of 7.29% this year, participating in its best performance since 2013.
Many Factors Measure Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin had a quarter in April 2024, followed by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut in September, two events that are generally considered bullish on BTC’s price outlook.
However, the rise in the country’s demographics has overshadowed these positive developments and the uncertainty surrounding the results of the highly contested US presidential election in November 2024.
That said, some crypto analysts are confident about Bitcoin’s comeback later in the year. For example, a Standard Chartered analyst you see BTC’s drop below $60,000 as a good buying opportunity.
Likewise, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen he foresees “Very high” chances of a crypto rally in Q4 2024. Some of the elements of this forecast going down The dominance of Bitcoin and the rise of Ethereum gas.
In contrast, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes opies that interest rate cuts may lead to short-term market damage. BTC is trading at $61,179 at press time, up 2.2% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, Charts from Coinglass.com and TradingView.com