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Bitcoin (BTC) closes at its all-time high (ATH), bringing excitement among bulls. However, veteran analyst Peter Brandt advises caution, urging the bulls to stay upbeat but avoid being assertive.
The Bitcoin Crack Is Still To Be Confirmed
After the beginning of nothingness in October – history bullish in the month of Bitcoin – the digital asset is trading at $71,789, about 3% shy of the March 2024 ATH of $73,737.
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Although the prospect of a new ATH has the crypto market at its feet, veteran analyst and trader Brandt thinks that many conditions must be fulfilled to determine a confirmed breach.
In a posted published in X on October 29, Brandt warned BTC bulls against excessive enthusiasm without technical confirmation of an exit.
Specifically, the analyst warned bulls about the limitations of diagonal patterns – especially those with slanted border lines – on trading charts.
Brandt explained that while “hitting” the boundary line may excite the bulls, it does not represent a guaranteed breakout.
For the breakout to be real, Brandt set a target price of $76,000, saying that the daily chart of Bitcoin needs to close above this level, with an average true range (ATR) that confirms this move above the previous high set for Bitcoin in March.
For the uninitiated, ATR is a technical analysis indicator that measures market volatility by calculating the average of the actual price ranges over a set period, usually 14 days. It shows how much the asset is moving, helping traders to measure potential price fluctuations and set stop losses or profits with knowledge.
In addition, Brandt notes that such a breakout should be confirmed by closing on Sunday at midnight UTC, to ensure that it is not an illusion that ends up catching bullish investors.
On the weekly chart, Brandt highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent development has “only significant chart points,” rather than a definitive breakout.
The analyst concluded that BTC price has a big journey ahead before making a new support level.
Key to Win $71,000 – $73,000 Resistance Level
Another crypto analyst, 0xAmberCT, highlighted the importance of a strong resistance area around $71,000 to $73,000. However, the analyst shared several reasons why this time may be different.
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First, the high probability of victory for US presidential candidate Donald Trump may provide the much-needed fuel to the broader crypto market to begin its Q4 2024 rally.
At the time of writing, Polymarket he gives Trump has a 66.5% chance of winning compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 33.5%. Trump’s win is a boon for the digital goods industry.
Additionally, recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and heightened expectations of a “slow recovery” are expected to increase market appetite. Risk assets like BTC are expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment.
Analysts’ assessment echoes Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s prediction that BTC may “melt” to $80,000 in Q4 2024.
However, crypto analyst Cole Garner recently shared that BTC may go down before finding a new ATH due to the tight liquidity of the chain. BTC is trading at $71,789 at press time, up 4% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and Tradingview.com