Bitcoin has risen more than 7% since the beginning of the year, leading the crypto market to a promising recovery. While this rise is fueling optimism, many investors are shifting their focus to altcoins, anticipating greater opportunities in the broader crypto space. Historically, BTC rallies have often laid the groundwork for altcoins to follow, and current market conditions indicate that this pattern may repeat itself.
Senior analyst Jelle recently shared a compelling technical analysis on X, pointing to a potential shift in market dynamics. According to Jelle, TOTAL3—a market benchmark index that excludes BTC and Ethereum—seems poised to enter price recovery, a phase where commodities test new highs due to increased buying pressure. Adding weight to this theory, Bitcoin dominance, a measure of BTC’s share of the total cryptocurrency market, has recently collapsed, indicating the weakening of BTC’s market control.
These indicators suggest the beginning of a different season, a time when other cryptocurrencies surpass BTC. With BTC settling near key levels, conditions seem favorable for altcoins to capture investors’ attention. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this trend gains momentum, potentially reshaping the market landscape for 2025.
It’s Alt Season
Bitcoin had a stellar 2024, reaching new heights and consolidating its position as the market leader. As 2025 progresses, BTC continues to show strength, but fluctuations in market power may be present. Historically, Bitcoin’s dominance has often reversed during times when altcoins gained momentum, and this year may be the same.
Senior analyst Jelle recently provided insight into these changing dynamics with a detailed technical analysis of TOTAL3 and BTC dominance. TOTAL3, an index that tracks the market cap of altcoins other than BTC and Ethereum, appears poised to enter price recovery—a phase in which commodities test new highs driven by upward demand. At the same time, the dominance of the Bitcoin market has recently experienced a significant decline, suggesting that altcoins may lead to capture the interest of investors.
Jelle’s analysis highlights that as Bitcoin stabilizes near key levels, liquidity tends to flow into altcoins, causing what is known as alt season. During these times, altcoins have historically outperformed BTC, providing greater returns for investors willing to diversify.
The combination of Bitcoin’s strong foundation and the opportunity for altcoin activity sets the stage for 2025 to be a significant year for the broader crypto market. As TOTAL3 inches closer to price discovery and BTC’s dominance weakens, the opportunity for altcoins to shine becomes more apparent.
Price Action: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,900, with the price testing the key 4-hour 200 Moving Average (MA) at $98,139. This level has become a key point for BTC, as it determines whether the bulls can regain control and drive the price above the $100K mark. A retracement and hold above this level would indicate renewed bullish momentum and pave the way for a strong breakout.
However, the market remains cautious, and if Bitcoin fails to hold the 4-hour 200 MA, a period of extended consolidation may follow. These lateral movements may test the patience of traders and investors alike. A key support to watch is the 4-hour 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $95,881. A loss of this rate could indicate a deep correction, raising concerns about a possible reassessment of low-demand areas.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the 4-hour 200 MA and push higher will define its short-term trajectory. A sustained move above $98,139 and the previous breakthrough of $100K will confirm bullish potential. On the other hand, a break below the 4-hour EMA may delay the next leg of the rally, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. The coming days will be important in the direction of BTC.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView