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Bitcoin experts are buzzing as President-elect Donald Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve’s current policy, calling interest rates “too high” despite continued inflationary pressures. “We are inheriting a difficult situation from the outgoing administration,” Trump said at his Mar-a-Lago club, adding that officials appeared to be “trying everything they can to make it more difficult” for his incoming team.
The bleak comments, coming less than two weeks before Trump’s inauguration, raised expectations of a possible change in US monetary policy—and raised speculation about the growth of Bitcoin and other risk assets in the new year.
Trump Playbook for 2017: Dollar “Too Strong”, Bitcoin Up?
Although the economic and political landscape has changed since Trump’s first term, some market watchers see similarities to his 2017 speech. At the time, he criticized the US dollar which he considered to be “very strong,” a situation that preceded a significant decline in the currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) peaked at 104 in early January 2017 but began a sharp decline in early 2018, dropping to around 98.
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This sharp move in the dollar coincided with a broader risk environment, fueling rallies in equities and the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), made a direct comparison with X.
“The last time Trump said something was ‘too high,’ it was the dollar – back in January 2017, a few days before his inauguration,” Bittel said and recounted: “Here’s what he said: ‘Our companies can’t compete. Now because our currency is too strong. And it is killing us.”
Notably, last year, Trump also called the latest force “a huge burden on American businesses.” Bittel continued: “Trump understands the impact of a strong dollar – and the same logic applies to higher interest rates. They suppress exports, hurt corporate earnings, and slow economic growth.”
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Commenting on the impact of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, Bittel concluded: “Then what happened? However, the dollar began a steep decline, setting the stage for one of the most significant moves we’ve seen in years – triggering a meltdown in risk assets. Déjà vu? I think so. Let’s see how it plays out.”
Bittel is not the only expert who speculates that the DXY may already be high, showing its 2017 release pattern. Steve Donzé, Deputy CIO of Multi Asset at Pictet Asset Management Japan, shared the much-discussed chart on X, commenting “During. Ready to bounce back,” while covering DXY’s recent move through the currency’s path in early 2017. The chart suggests a similar pattern that may indicate renewed dollar weakness in the coming weeks.
In a separate post, financial analyst Silver Surfer (@SilverSurfer_23) pointed out the mysterious timing: “DXY peaked on January 3, 2017—18 days before Trump’s Inauguration. The DXY appears to have peaked on January 2, 2025—19 days before Trump’s inauguration.” He described the similarities as “a repeat of history,” explaining that he saw a correlation between the DXY approach before the two were introduced.
Such simulations are fueling speculation that repeated dollar declines could usher in an environment that favors riskier assets. Should the dollar really enter a new downtrend—as in 2017–2018—Bitcoin could ride the wave of renewed liquidity and perceived appetite.
At press time, BTC traded at $94,950.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com