From less to more, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu has done a complete U-turn on the two-child policy in the 30 years since it was first introduced in 1994.
In fact, Naidu is now insisting that more than two children become individuals, encouraging it by making it suitable for contestants.
But is that really the answer to the challenges of possible demographic change, and resulting social and political change?
At an event in Naravaripalle, a village in Tirupati district, Naidu said on Wednesday that people can become sarpanch, municipal councilor or mayor only if they have more than two children.
“Once upon a time, there were people with many children who were not allowed to run for office (in elections) or on the local streets. Now I say that people with low numbers of children cannot enter the competition. “You will be a crook, a municipal councillor, a chairman of an organization or a Mayor only if you have more than two children,” he said.
The shift from decades of promoting small families to actively promoting larger ones is a response to declining fertility rates in the province. This pivot marks a significant departure from the previous priorities of the country’s statistics.
FORESEEING AN ECONOMIC CHALLENGE?
The demographic situation of Andhra Pradesh has changed significantly since 1994. According to the National Family Health Survey 2019-21, the National Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.7; it is well below the required replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Urban areas reported an even lower TFR of 1.47, indicating a decline that, if left unchecked, could lead to long-term social and economic challenges.
It seems that Naidu has seen these potential challenges, and may believe that the abolition of the two-child norm, or rather a twist on it, is what is needed to adapt to today’s realities. According to Naidu, India will face the challenge of an aging population in 2047.
“Until 2047, we will have a demographic dividend, there will be many young people. After 2047, there will be more adults … if less than two children are born (per woman), then the population will decrease. If you (each woman) give birth to more than two children, the population will increase,” Naidu said at the event.
“If we don’t act now, our villages will disappear, and our economy will be disrupted,” he warned, stressing the need for immediate action.
NEW CONCERNS ON EQUALITY, DISCRIMINATION
But, if this is going to be the solution for the shrinking population, it will bring new obstacles, especially social and economic ones. These are the ones that Naidu said casually while supporting the policy of more than two children.
During the event, the Telugu Desam Party supremo noted that the older generations have many children, but the current generation has reduced it to one child, and reiterated the concept of “double income no children” (DINK).
With the prevailing economic conditions in the country, the cost of living, across India, is only going up. And the new policy may increase inequality as only wealthier families are in a better position to afford larger homes. Poor families, or those with limited income, can face the financial burden of raising more than one child.
This raises questions about how the government plans to ensure equitable outcomes for those who want to have large families, but are unable to maintain them. Asking for large families may disproportionately disadvantage women, especially in rural areas, where access to education and health care is often limited.
WHICH IS THE BEST SOLUTION, SO?
There is another layer of complexity that is added when it is seen in the wider context of the world. As India becomes the most populous country in the world, there is a lot of focus on managing services and infrastructure for a growing population.
To make any policy changes work, Andhra Pradesh will need to adopt a holistic approach to ensure that large families translate into a strong, stable society.
Investing in education, health care, and childcare infrastructure can help families balance the economic and social costs of having more children. Additionally, the state must address structural inequalities that have historically hindered women’s empowerment and access to resources.
While the shift from population control to promotion shows a bold acceptance of new challenges, its success will depend on the state’s ability to focus on holistic development, rather than bridging the gap.