As the year 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin investors are looking forward to the last quarter of the year, traditionally known for positive price action. With many thinking that a bullish rally may be on the horizon, let’s break down the historical data, analyze the trends, and estimate the likelihood of what BTC price action might look like by the end of this year.
Historical Performance of Bitcoin in Q4
If we look at the past decade on the Monthly Returns Heatmap, Q4 tends to bring some amazing gains for Bitcoin. The data shows that BTC tends to end the year strong, as evidenced by three consecutive green months in 2023. Not every year follows this trend though, 2021 and 2022 were less interesting, with Bitcoin ending the year on a bigger note. However, years like 2020 and 2015 to 2017 saw large price increases, highlighting the bullish potential for Q4.
Analyzes potential Q4 2024 Results based on historical data
To better understand the potential results of Q4 2024, we can compare the previous performance of Q4 with the current price action. This can give us an idea of how Bitcoin might behave if historical patterns continue. The range of possible outcomes is wide, from significant gains to small losses, or even sideways price movements. The projection lines have a rainbow of colors ranging from 2023 in red back to 2015 in a light shade of violet.
For example, in 2017 (purple line), Bitcoin experienced a huge rise, suggesting that in an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach values of up to $240,000 by the end of 2024.
However, more conservative estimates are also possible. In a balanced Q4, Bitcoin could be between $93,000 and $110,000, while in a bearish scenario, prices could drop to $34,000, as seen in 2018 (blue line).
The average result based on this data appears to be around the $85,000 price point. Although this is based on the end-of-year price from this projection, years like 2021 (yellow line) resulted in a very high price before a significant pullback to end the year.
Is the Average Effect Possible?
While $85,000 in three months may seem optimistic, we have to look back to February of this year to see a single month where BTC gained 43.63%. We can also look at metrics like The Golden Ratio Multiplier which shows convergence at this level as a potential target with its 1.6x Accumulation High level.
Is $240,000 Even Possible?
Whether Bitcoin can reach such high prices will depend on various factors. Increased demand coupled with limited supply could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. In addition, developments such as Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investments, or major national and political events may increase demand. We are again seeing the same pattern in this cycle as we have seen in the previous two, with the first wave of major market entry before the cool period; A second meeting is likely to be held in the near future.
This is probably ambitious, the Bitcoin market has grown significantly since 2017 and we could need tens of billions of money pouring into the market. But Bitcoin is Bitcoin, and nothing is out of the question in this space!
The conclusion
Finally, while historical data suggests optimism for Q4, predicting the future of Bitcoin is always speculative. A third of all these predictions led to sideways price action, with one predicting a sharp decline. As always, it is important for investors to remain unbiased and reactive, rather than predicting Bitcoin data and price action.
For more depth on this topic, check out our latest YouTube video here:
Bitcoin Q4 – A Good End In 2024?