Bold predictions for second half of MLB: Ohtani history, blockbuster trade, more

The Futures Game, the Home Run Derby, the All-Star Game, and the MLB Draft are in the books. The trade deadline is less than three weeks away. After that, we’ll get into the dog days of summer and the various post-season races and awards. While we wait for another All-Star break, here are five bold predictions for the second half of the 2026 regular season. Come with me, won’t you?

The Tigers will trade for Tarik Skubal, and win the AL Central anyway

No team in the American League has a better record than the Tigers since June 1. They have won 22 of their last 36 games from 11 ½ games back in the AL Central to just 6 ½ games back. That’s an amazing run. It also shows how deep the Tigers celebrated earlier this week. Six weeks as the league’s best team and they are there still 6 ½ games back.

The Tigers have 15 games left between now and the August 3 trade deadline, none of them against the three teams they are chasing in the division (White Sox, Guardians, Twins). They will have a lot to do before they make a decision with Tarik Skubal. Skubal will be a free agent after the season and Detroit can do one of two things:

1. Trade him for younger players/prospects.
2. Keep him and hope they continue to climb the ladder.

This bold prediction says that, despite their recent hot play, the Tigers will indeed trade Skubal at the deadline. It won’t be an easy choice for the front office and fans will be upset, but it could be a ruthless decision for baseball. Where will Skubal end up? My guess is for the Braves, though I don’t think that’s a lock. The bidding war will intensify.

The second part of this bold prediction (yes, two sides) is that, even after trading Skubal, the Tigers will remain hot and will win the AL Central anyway. Running inexplicably is what this group does, isn’t it? Detroit traded Jack Flaherty at the 2024 deadline, then went 31-13 down the stretch to reach the postseason. (Last year’s run was not a good one.)

Keep in mind, the Tigers will be getting talent in the Skubal trade, and I have trouble believing that the package will be built from far away. They will get some MLB-ready talent to help them down. They are a good team and they are finally playing at their best. We predict that Skubal will go in the final, and the Tigers will win the division anyway.

Aaron Judge will return on September 1st and lead the MLB home run all the way

The Yankees are 18-19 and are averaging only 4.24 runs per game (22nd in MLB) since Aaron Judge last played on May 31. Judge will have a scan this week to check his broken rib, and last week, general manager Brian Cashman said he hopes those tests show enough healing that Judge can increase his performance. They don’t expect him to get the all clear to put together a perfect baseball career.

“The time it takes for him to recover should allow him to come back with us this season,” Cashman said recently (via MLB.com). “That’s all I know so far. After that, just wait for the picture to see where we are in that process.”

The general timeline for the rib fracture suggested Judge could return by mid-August, although it’s his upper rib, and those are tough. For this next bold prediction, I’m going to push Judge’s timeline back a bit, and say he returns when the roster goes up on September 1. And, because this is Aaron Judge, I’m going to add that he’ll lead baseball in home runs from that day forward. He will come back and make an impact immediately.

A team under .500 will make the postseason

We’re 60% of the way through the season (59.4%, if that) and this is still a real possibility. I thought it was a rough start to the season and things would settle down as we head into the summer, but no, there’s a chance America’s third wild card team will have a losing record. Here’s the current AL wild card standings:

1. Yankees: 54-42 (+6.5 GB)
2. Guardians: 51-46 (+3 GB)
t-3. Sailors: 48-49
t-3. Twins: 48-49
5. Red Sox: 46-48 (½ GB)
6. Astros: 47-51 (1 ½ GB)

The state of the National League wildcards isn’t nearly as sad. The Marlins sit in third place with a 52-45 record, while the next three teams on the outside looking in all have winning records. The NL wild card is an honest, decent race.

AL wild card race, though? Good gravy. I boldly predict this sad sack race will hold and the 80-82 team will get that last spot. The 1981 Royals made the postseason with a 50-53 full-season record, but that doesn’t count. The season was split in two by a strike, and Kansas City won the division title with a 30-23 record. They secured a postseason berth that way.

Otherwise, the worst record a team has had in a season is 82-80 by the 2005 Padres. That record falls this year and a sub.500 club gets that third AL wild card spot. It has been predicted.

Shohei Ohtani to throw first no-hitter since 2024

Against the Rangers on May 25, Tatsuya Imai and two Astros pitchers threw a baseball. first no-hitter in 20 months. Last year was baseball’s first no-hit season since 2005. The last no-hitter before Houston’s was Shota Imanaga and the Cubs’ two relievers against the Pirates on September 4, 2024. The last two no-hitters combined, then, in front of them?

The last no-hitter in baseball was thrown by Blake Snell, then the Giants, against the Reds in August 2024. We’re waiting for another one. Therefore, this bold prediction calls for Shohei Ohtani, Snell’s current teammate, to throw the first no-hitter since Snell. Ohtani has been impressive on the mound this year, posting a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 ⅔ innings.

Only Jacob Misiorowski has allowed a lower strikeout rate among 89 pitchers with at least 85 innings:

1. Jacob Misiorowski: .148
2. Shohei Ohtani: .180
3. Zack Wheeler: .185
4. Dylan continues: .190
5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .185

Ohtani is obviously a great host. What makes this prediction so bold is the nine innings portion. Ohtani has one complete game: July 27, 2023, while with the Angels. He hit the Tigers once and threw 111 pitches. Only five other times has Ohtani thrown eight innings in a game, and all five have come against the Angels. His career high with the Dodgers is seven innings.

At some point in the second half, however, Ohtani will have quick innings, and Dodger manager Dave Roberts will be comfortable leaving him in a complete game no-hitter. Let’s pick a date. How is September 7 against the Diamondbacks? Sounds good to me, so mark your calendars.

The Braves will miss the postseason

I have to tell you, I don’t feel good about the Braves. They are 55-40 and in first place in the NL East, but their hot start is doing a heavy lifting job. Atlanta is 10-19 in its last 29 games and the division lead has dropped from 9 ½ games to two games. Their lead in the wildcard spot has dropped from 11 games to five. Blame the crime:

That’s not good. Jorge Mateo and Dominic Smith’s hot starts have faded. Drake Baldwin has been a mess since returning from the injured list. Austin Riley still it doesn’t hit. The depth hasn’t been surprising this season (4.37 ERA since June 1), but it has been. The lack of focus of the offense that buried this team last year is visible again.

Our final bold prediction is that Atlanta’s downward spiral will continue and the team will eventually miss the postseason. By only a game or two, maybe even a tiebreaker, but they will miss the postseason after holding a big lead in the division and wild card spot. There are a lot of arrows pointing down here. I would be nervous if I were a Braves loyalist.