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For years Europeans have been asking a version of the same question: Will the United States remain committed to NATO? Sharp remarks about the partners and their willingness to share equally the burden of the defense budget have raised doubts about the future of the transatlantic relationship itself.
Yet the latest Reagan Institute Summer Survey suggests that reports of NATO’s demise in American politics are greatly exaggerated. This nationwide US public opinion poll, conducted in the weeks leading up to the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara, reveals a broad and strong base of support for the alliance among Americans – including many who are often thought to be skeptical of US engagement abroad.
This article found should convince allies across Europe: 73 percent of Americans believe that keeping the United States in NATO matters to America’s security and prosperity. That includes most Democrats and Republicans. It also includes 61 percent of self-identified MAGA Republicans, a constituency often portrayed as hostile to America’s traditional coalitions.
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NATO’s defense policy is also recognized, with 72 percent of Americans saying they would support the United States responding with military force if a NATO ally is attacked. Among MAGA Republicans, 69 percent support this Article 5 primary obligation.
These numbers tell an important story. Americans understand that NATO is not a charity or favor that the United States is doing for Europe. It is a strategic alliance that advances America’s interests by deterring adversaries, protecting security, and ensuring that the United States does not face global threats alone.
At the same time, the survey also highlights a fact that European leaders should not ignore: support for NATO is not the same across the American political spectrum. Overall, 55 percent of Americans oppose withdrawing the United States from the alliance. But among MAGA Republicans, 63 percent support a US withdrawal from NATO.
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These findings point to a paradox in the message the Americans are sending to their European allies. Many Americans are skeptical of NATO yet support the practical results the alliance brings. They see NATO as vital to US security. They support defensive allies under attack. But at the same time, they have real questions about the institution itself and continued US involvement.
What does that tell us about the future of America’s commitment to NATO? Perhaps the continuation of US support for the alliance will depend less on rhetoric about the transatlantic alliance and more on concrete evidence that the alliance is ready to meet today’s challenges, adapt to changing security threats, and spend more money on defense.
American policymakers from both parties have long argued that European allies should take a greater share of transatlantic security responsibility and increase their domestic defense spending. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine accelerated that process, prompting significant investment in defense — especially in Eastern Europe.
But now, the alliance has entered a new phase. Every NATO partner meets the Wales Conference guideline of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. And the landmark goal of 5 percent of GDP from last summer’s NATO Summit in The Hague reflects the recognition that the security environment has changed dramatically. The alliance requires investment in military readiness, modern capabilities, and industrial capacity.
The importance of this commitment goes beyond planning for protection. It has become a political test of NATO’s loyalty to the United States.
Many Americans, especially those who doubt the value of US alliances, do not judge NATO by its founding principles, conference declarations, or strategic concepts. They judge you by doing. The question going forward will be: Are America’s allies making the right investments in their defense so that our alliance is ready to meet evolving security challenges together?
The NATO summit in Ankara is the latest forum to explore this question. And partners have shown measurable progress towards the commitments they made in The Hague by 2025. Total defense and security spending has reached nearly 4 percent of GDP, just a year later. There are early indications that a real increase in spending will accelerate procurement and force modernization, boost defense industrial production, and deliver capabilities needed to counter aggression.
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No one in Europe should consider this a concession to American political pressure; rather, it is an investment in the long-term health of the alliance itself. Investments in defense, modernization, and growth of the industrial base will directly benefit the security and economies of European countries, not just the United States.
And on the US side, the Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy focuses on “[e]”making Europe independent…including a major commitment to its own defense” should not be seen as the United States withdrawing from NATO; rather, it is an opportunity for our European partners to play their proper role.
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As Secretary General Rutte said when he spoke at the Reagan Institute in Washington earlier this year, “This is a move from unhealthy interdependence to a transatlantic relationship based on true relationships.”
The strongest argument for keeping America in NATO isn’t rhetoric – it’s results. If European allies continue to strengthen their defense capabilities and make significant progress in shifting the atlantic burden, they will reinforce the case that NATO remains essential to America’s security and prosperity. And in an era of political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic, that may be the most important investment the alliance can make.
