I thought about writing about Milwaukee Brewers ace and NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misoroswki starting in St. Louis. Louis today, but I don’t see the value of betting there. I’m definitely rooting for the series opener between the Mariners and the surprising Marlins from Miami. First pitch at 6:40 ET, and ace Max Meyer goes for the hosts.
Mariners vs. Marlins MLB for the same game
- Miami money line
- Alt Under 5.5 runs in the first five innings
FanDuel SGP price: +150
It doesn’t matter to me who wins NL Manager of the Year, but I guess I don’t understand why Atlanta’s Walt Weiss (+240) is so far ahead of the FanDuel odds board for that award and Miami’s Clayton McCullough is only the fifth favorite at +900. Sure, Weiss has the Braves leading the NL East. But it’s a big market, the Braves are stacked. They had to run for the Senior Circuit.
On the other hand, that was not what was expected of Miami (49-42), which finished with a losing record in each of the last two seasons but only four games behind the Braves with a streak. Entering this season, they had just a 72.5 win total and were sold +500 to make the postseason. The only three NL clubs with longer odds were the Cardinals (+600), Nationals (+1600) and the formidable Rockies (+3500).
I will note that St. Louis is definitely playing above expectations, and its manager, Oliver Marmol, is ahead of McCullough for the NLMOY award at +800. The Cardinals are a half game behind Miami for the last NL wild card spot right now.
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Now the Marlins are priced at 330 to win at least 80 games – it will probably take at least 83 wins, at least in 2025, to earn an NL wild card spot – and they’re +190 on DraftKings for extra baseball with the No at -235, so the books are still in doubt. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Marlins an updated win rate of 82.8 and a 35.6% chance in the postseason, which equates to +181.
Miami returns home from a 10-game road trip at 7-3 — including taking two of three at St. Louis. Louis, which could have great results — and won’t hit the road again until after the All-Star break. The Marlins are an even better 28-17 at home this season despite drawing 12,735 per game, ahead of only Sacramento, and most fans in attendance tend to root for the visiting team. Maybe not tonight, since there aren’t a ton of Mariners located thousands of miles from Seattle in South Florida.
One of the breakout hitters in the Big Circuit this season has been Meyer, 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 112 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP yet a +10000 in the NL Cy Young. He was named an All-Star for the first time, along with shortstop Otto Lopez. Miami has multiple All-Stars for the first time since 2023. The 27-year-old Meyer is the first Marlins starter to start as an All-Star since ace Sandy Alcantara’s 2022 NL Cy Young Award winning campaign.
Meyer was MLB’s only hitless starter until last Wednesday when he allowed five runs, but one earned, over six innings in a loss at Colorado. All four of Meyer’s runs in the fifth were unearned after an error by second baseman Javier Sanoja extended the inning. Meyer began the season with a nine-game losing streak to tie the franchise record.
He was worth $565 if you bet $100 on Miami to win all 18 of his starts. He is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA and a .202 strikeout average in nine home runs. Meyer’s lone outing against the Mariners was last season in Seattle, and he allowed five runs in four innings in the loss. But he was nowhere near the same pitcher in 2025.
The model projects Meyer at 5.5 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs tonight. He’s +179 to win on DraftKings (tentative) and set at 6.5 Ks.
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Meanwhile, last Tuesday I wrote a story here at CBS Sports about the crazy home/road split of Seattle’s Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.17 ERA). The righty continued his home run dominance that night against the Angels with a win to improve to 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA and .156 OBA at T-Mobile Park. Away, the 26-year-old is 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA and hitters are hitting .284 against him.
Woo is in his fourth big league season but has eluded the Marlins thus far. The team said this will be his last start before the break. The model projects him at 6.2 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs.
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Monday was one of the weirdest MLB days of the season, and I got burned a few times. Just remember that the last week before the break is always a rough one as the boys look at that time. But everything seems to be going well here.
I will only have a Marlins money line. but +150 is a good value. I preferred the alt Under 5.5 in the first five instead of the full alt Under 10.5 because after Monday’s stupidity I really don’t want to play with bullpens. Check out more expert picks in SportsLine’s daily newsletter.
