‘The cost of drama is very high,’ said the expert as NATO leaders met in Turkey – National
Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend a two-day NATO summit in the Turkish capital Ankara, where world leaders will try to avoid a diplomatic clash with US President Donald Trump.
A major increase in the military budget is expected to feature prominently as NATO members remain under heavy pressure from the US to spend more on defense. But behind the scenes, divisions remain over how much of a threat Russia poses and the chaotic foreign policy of the Trump administration.
Gaëlle Rivard Piché, the head of the Canadian defense institute CDA Institute, said that the conference will be about the members of the alliance who have proven that their spending is in good condition and will lead to military strength.
“It will be about showing that we (put) our money where our mouth is. Besides announcing investments and moving money, actually using that money to find new skills,” he said.
In 2014, the same year Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, coalition members agreed to meet the goal of spending two percent of national GDP on defense.
NATO says Canada, which has long struggled to reach 2 percent, has finally reached its target by spending tens of billions of dollars in new military spending. But two percent is now the floor, not the ceiling.
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The NATO summit of 7-8 July is the first since almost all member states ratified the pledge in The Hague last year to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035.
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NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that although the allies could not celebrate the alliance reaching two percent of the target, they must now present “credible” plans to reach a higher level.
In a speech put out by the Washington-based Atlantic Council think-tank last month, Rutte said the five percent figure was “focused” on the measurement of what the alliance needs to improve its capabilities.
“That (two percent figure) is a little bit out of the air,” he said.
The Carney administration is expected to talk about its efforts to boost defense spending and investment in the defense sector. Government officials said at a press conference Friday that Canada plans to increase its defense spending to 2.13 percent of GDP in the 2026-2027 fiscal year, and 5 percent by 2035.
The government has not publicly disclosed how it plans to reach the 2035 goal and has not formally put it into a financial framework.
Kerry Buck, a senior fellow at the University of Ottawa and Canada’s ambassador to NATO, said Canada is going to the conference in “good order” in terms of accounting — something that has rarely been the case in the past.
But since the 2025 summit, Trump has doubled down on actions that have shaken the coalition and widened diplomatic divisions.
In addition to threatening to leave the alliance, he has even considered taking over Greenland. He launched an unexpected war against Iran, then criticized NATO allies for failing to help him. And the US has begun a drawdown of American troops and capabilities in Europe.
The summit has been scaled back to reduce the potential for conflict over an outspoken US defense policy.
“NATO should write about some issues that might be better resolved. It should move to the lowest common ground because the cost of drama is too high for the alliance at the moment,” said Buck.
“Is a pragmatic approach the right one to take? Absolutely. But what a pity, because the threat landscape is worse than ever.”
Former U.S. diplomat Brett Bruen said the coalition is making “substantial progress” in raising military spending, “not least because of Trump’s threat to global stability and security.”
Still, Bruen said, “the vibe will be very difficult” and regardless of how the countries do, “we may see a lot of complaints from Trump, maybe some threats and insults.”
“From a Canadian perspective, I will be looking to see if Carney can carve out an expanded role for himself because he is one of the leaders within a powerful coalition that is emerging as a powerhouse,” he said.
In January, Carney gave a speech to world leaders in Davos, Switzerland about middle powers coming together in the face of extreme power pressure. The speech won positive reviews from allies around the world, as well as criticism from the Trump administration.
“I don’t really want us to stand out,” said Rivard Piché. “There is safety in numbers in the current environment.”
NATO allies are expected to make a series of defense industry announcements in the coming days for a contract worth tens of billions of dollars.
The prime minister is expected to address Tuesday’s defense forum on funding defense capabilities.
Rivard Piché said he is looking to see if Canada discloses information about the Bank of Defence, Security and Stability planned or any new contracts for Canadian companies under the SAFE program. Carney has publicly pushed for a defense bank.
Canada announced at the G7 Leaders Summit in Évian, France last month that tactical radio manufacturer Marconi Technologies is the first Canadian firm to receive a contract under the SAFE defense procurement agreement Canada signed with the European Union.
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