As we wrap up Week 3 and begin Week 4 of the 2024 NFL regular season, it’s time to preview the current state of play and the journey to Super Bowl LIX. There are months between now and the postseason, and yet, some teams are already showing promising signs, while others have a mountain to climb to earn a spot in the 14-team field.
Using our research, we’ve outlined the course of the rest of the season, providing a broad overview of the playoff prospects in both conferences. We also reviewed each team’s odds of reaching the postseason, winning their division, and reaching the Super Bowl. Here’s the information you need as of September 27, 7 pm ET.
Examining the AFC Playoff Landscape
In the NFL, two teams with a 95% or better chance of making the playoffs, both from the AFC. The Bills, coming off a stunning win over the Jaguars, lead the way with a 97% chance, with the Chiefs following close behind at 96%. The Jets (81%) and Steelers (79%) are the next contenders, with our Football Power Index giving Pittsburgh a 52% chance of winning the challenging AFC North.
The Bengals, despite a disappointing 0-3 start, still have a 36% chance of making the playoffs, a significant drop from their initial 66% chance at the start of the season. The Patriots, at a low 9%, sit at the bottom of the conference in terms of playoff chances. Three AFC teams, once considered major contenders, now sink below 20%: Dolphins (10%), Jaguars (13%), and Browns (18%).
Predicting the NFC Playoff Field
The Eagles, after their win over the Saints, have an incredible 82% chance of playing. They are closely followed by two unexpected explosive teams of the season: the Vikings (76%) and the Saints (69%), despite their recent losses. The 49ers’ Week 3 loss to the Rams dropped them to 62% – 11th-best in the NFL.
Surprisingly, the Seahawks, who are the only 3-0 team with less than a 75% chance, sit on the floor with a 50% chance. The Commanders were able to increase their odds to 35%, following their Monday night win over the Bengals. This is the same percentage as the Cowboys, who narrowly defeated the Giants. The Panthers and Giants find themselves at the bottom end of the NFL, with 6% and 4% playoff chances, respectively.
NFL Playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Division round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
February 9: Super Bowl LIX (New Orleans)
