Heading into the World Cup co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, almost everyone is trying to predict the outcome.
The Opta Analyst sports analysis site and media platform, built on Opta’s sports statistics database, has also produced its regular preview. According to Opta’s computer, Spain is the most likely to win the World Cup in this first competition with 48 teams.
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As the survey indicates, Argentina comes to the World Cup as the defending champions after the Albiceleste, led by Lionel Messi, won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, claiming their third world title.
Of the six South American players, one of the heavyweights is five-time world champions Brazil, who, under Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti – who won the Champions League a record five times at club level – will try to end their title drought, which dates back to their last World Cup victory in 2002.
Two-time champions Uruguay will also be there, although the Uruguayans are generally given less chance of overall victory than their South American rivals.
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One third of the participating countries, 16 teams, represent Europe. Among them, four-time world champions Germany, two-time winners France and one-time champions England and Spain could all win again (four champions Italy – unlike the previous eight winners – failed to make it).
For these teams, Opta says a World Cup victory for current European champions Spain will be a surprise result, a conclusion based on a supercomputer simulation of the tournament 25,000 times.
Opta predictions
• The team with the greatest chance of winning the World Cup is Spain, who lifted the trophy with 16.1% of the 25,000 simulations.
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• Spain is followed by France (13%), England (11.2%) and Argentina (10.4%), which means that each of them wins the World Cup in more than 10% of simulations.
• In 35.9% of supercomputer simulations, the title goes to a nation that has never won the World Cup before (giving hope, for example, to Portugal, which is in fifth place in the rankings with a 7% chance).
• Only Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%) have more than a 5% chance of winning the World Cup, as well as the teams already listed.
Spain opportunities in detail
More highlights from Opta’s forecast:
• Spain is the only team likely not to reach the quarter-finals, doing so with 52.1% of simulations.
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• La Roja has a 39% chance of reaching the semi-finals, and in 25.6% of simulations, they also reach the final.
• Spain have been given a 75.3% chance of winning their group (ahead of Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde), but even if they don’t advance, they still have a 98.5% chance of advancing to the Last 32, from where they reached the Last 16 with a 72.7% chance. (The computer similarly divides the probability of being in France, England and Argentina.)
Spain’s players celebrate the trophy after winning the 2024 UEFA European Championship final against England in Berlin on 14 July 2024. – Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
As the statistics from the 25,000 ratings already cited make clear, Opta has essentially reached the same conclusion that any reasonably informed fan would give the question “who will win the World Cup?” without adding numbers: past world champion.
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According to the computer, the former champion is the favorite to win
If we add the 1.7% given to Uruguay, which is in 13th place in the Opta list, to the aforementioned percentages, the seven former world champions participating have a 64.1% chance of winning the title, compared to 35.9% shared among the other 41 teams in the competition.
It is also worth looking at those that the computers estimate are less likely to win: according to Opta Analyst, 28 teams have less than 1% chance of becoming world champions.
Among them, the computer gives Turkey the best chance at 0.9%, while at the very bottom there are five sides with not even a tenth of a percent: DR Congo, Qatar, Cape Verde, Haiti and Curaçao each given a real chance of 0%. The computer also places Canada, who will participate in this group, in 24th place, which gives them – surprisingly – the same as Austria: a 0.5% chance of making it to the finals, better than, for example, the Swedes (0.4%) or the hopes of the Czech Republic (0.3%).
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The other two co-hosts have little reason to be disappointed, according to the forecast. Although the United States (1.2%) and Mexico (1%) may not harbor dreams of real glory, they still sit at 18 and 20, respectively, comfortably within the top twenty.
Of those teams, although not favourites, who could still produce an impressive performance, the computer gives 8th-ranked Netherlands a 3.6% chance, Norway (9th) 3.5%, Belgium (10th) 2.4%, Colombia (11th) 2.1%, 2022 semi-finalists Morocco and second-placed Morocco (1.98) and 12% 2022 bronze medalists Croatia (15th) a 1.6% chance of taking the title.
Speaking to Euronews, the former world champion of France Robert Pirès said: “I believe in my team. We have a great team. The group is very good, inside, we have very good players. We have Dembele and Mbappe, Olise, Cherki. So after this, we need to put our rules on the field, like sacrifice, like discipline, respect for your opponent. I believe in Didier the message of the team, the message of the team, he sends the team.”
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And former Italian world champion Marco Materazzi weighed in: “So if PSG were the favourites [in the Champions League] because they won last year, and maybe Argentina, because they won the last World Cup. But Portugal, Spain, they are very good and difficult. Morocco, too, is perhaps the biggest surprise. “
