What you need to know about the party vote that will decide Japan’s next leader

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TOKYO (AP) – The ruling party of outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a key vote Friday that will establish a new national leader.

The vote is limited to long-serving Liberal Democratic Party MPs and dues-paying members. Because the party’s ruling coalition controls parliament, the winner is guaranteed to become Japan’s next prime minister.

A record nine lawyers, including two women, are vying for the job in an unexpected race.

The winner must regain public trust quickly, or Japan could face a return to a damaging cycle of interim governments, experts say.

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How does the election work?

The vote is limited to LDP lawmakers and 1.1 million grassroots members. That’s less than 1% of the country’s eligible voters.

No candidate is expected to win a majority in the first round of voting due to split votes, so the winner will likely be determined in a contest between the top two vote-getters.

LDP leadership votes have traditionally been decided by powerful party leaders, but experts say that could change this time as all but six parties have announced their disbandment following corruption allegations.

The vote is important for the LDP, which is looking for a leader who can revive public support for the party after scandals damaged Kishida’s reputation.

What does the vote mean for Japan?

Experts say the election could mark a return to an era similar to the early 2000s, when “rotating” leadership changes and political instability ended with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s eight-year rule.

This is because the new leader will not have stable support from powerful parties.

Kishida’s three-year leadership followed Yoshihide Suga, who had one year in office before being forced to resign over his unpopular handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Frequent changes of government make it difficult for Japanese leaders to address long-term policy goals or develop reliable relationships with other leaders. Japan’s diplomatic and security policies, however, will continue to be based on an important alliance with the United States.

With less influence from the parties, the prime minister can wield more power, but stability depends on support ratings, said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at the University of Tokyo. The question is whether the next prime minister can make political changes. The new leader will have to deal with rising military costs, childcare and climate change, he said.

The most damaging scandal centers on the failure of many of the organization’s most influential members to report political donations. That led to the indictment of several lawmakers, their aides and accountants. Kishida’s party has tightened political finance rules and conducted internal investigations, but critics say these measures have not been enough.

“I foresee a further weakening of the political situation, with the LDP changing its face again and again,” said Chiyako Sato, political editor of the Mainichi newspaper.

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Who is running?

All nine candidates are current or former Cabinet ministers.

Shigeru Ishiba, former defense minister, occupied the No. 1 in media polls. Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of the popular prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, succeeds Ishiba. Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, an Abe protege and hardline conservative who ran against Kishida in 2021, is third by a narrow margin.

Experts say two out of three are expected to advance in the competition. But it’s hard to predict the winner, because the race can be influenced by backroom dealings amid the rigors of the party.

The first female prime minister?

Takaichi and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa want to become Japan’s first female leader.

That, however, is in the hands of male veterans such as former Prime Ministers Taro Aso, Suga and Kishida.

Of the two women, Takaichi ranked higher in media polls than Kamikawa. He has ties to members of Abe’s party, including those involved in the money laundering scandal, and his consistent support for patriarchal culture has been criticized by some as bad for the advancement of women.

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Kamikawa is considered safe for others. He said that just being able to participate in the race showed the new LDP.

Women make up only 10.3% of Japan’s lower house of parliament. That makes the country 163rd for women’s representation out of 190 countries surveyed in an April report by the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union.

In Japan’s largely paternalistic culture, it is still common for sons to inherit political power from their fathers, often reducing the chances of women from non-political families running for office. The nine candidates include five legacy male politicians.

What happens next?

On October 1, Kishida and his Cabinet ministers will resign. The new leader, after being approved by parliament, will form a new Cabinet later in the day.

Although the current term of the lower house lasts until October 2025, most of the candidates say they will hold early elections after taking office. Viewers are expecting an election in a few weeks, so the new prime minister can try to use a new image.

The main opposition party – Japan’s liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party – won local elections this year. That was helped by the scandals of the LDP. But the team has since struggled to build momentum.

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The CPDJ on Monday elected former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda as its leader. That is a radical change that may be aimed at capturing new voters and LDP supporters disgusted by the scandals.

Political observers say the opposition parties are too fragmented to attract voters who want to punish the LDP, and there are doubts that the opposition parties can be used.

At an LDP election campaign event in Tokyo, party member Shohei Tsunoda, 72, said: “It would be good if we could have a system like the one in America, where two parties compete and take turns in power.” But right now, CPDJ doesn’t seem to have that kind of power.”

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Follow AP’s Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific

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