Fires – the fires in Gaza and Lebanon will be held for now, although their boundaries will be tested over the weekend, because all sides want to avoid full-scale fighting for at least a few weeks, the analyst said.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces remained in place on Sunday’s deadline for their withdrawal, amid Israel’s claims that Hezbollah had broken its pledge to leave the area. In Gaza, Hamas failed to abort the women killed by Israel to be released on Saturday, causing Israel to delay the agreed return of their homes in northern Gaza.
But with each side accusing the other of reneging on their deals, analysts say, both analysts and their opponents had reason to be flexible and look at a friend’s excesses for a while.
Hezbollah, despite being angry at Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, is in great danger from Israel if it renews its rockets in Israeli cities. Hamas wants to keep power in Gaza and risks losing it when the war returns. And Israel needs to maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough to release at least two more hostages. Israel’s leaders also appear eager to place President Trump, who campaigned on a promise to maintain peace in the Middle East.
Demonstrating their desire to expand Gaza Crece, Israel and Hamas appeared to show the difficulty of the weekend near midnight on Sunday. The Qatari government, a mediator between the parties, said the female hostage, Arbel Yehuhud, would be released this week along with two others who would be released ahead of schedule. In return, Israel said it would allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza on Monday morning.
As for Lebanon, the White House announced that the index would be extended until February 18, although there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese Prime Minister’s Office confirmed the extension.
Aaron David Miller, former U.S. counterpart to Middle East Peace Peatures, said, “They’re going to go in in the next few weeks — beyond that it’s anyone’s guess.”
“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. They are concessions that depend on each side giving the other some understanding and a line of guidance,” he added. “That is their weakness, but their strength.”
That threatening environment ultimately allowed both resolutions to survive the weekend, just as Israeli forces shot and killed people in Lebanon and Gaza who were trying to return to areas still controlled by Israel.
The Lebanese Ministry of Defense said it was killed by Israeli fire in Southern Lebanon, and the Palestinian News Center said it was killed in Gaza as large crowds gathered around Israeli forces, wanting to go home.
But on Monday morning, it appeared that the Gaza settlement could easily do so. In Lebanon, Hezbollah released a statement praising residents trying to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to withdraw. But Hezbollah did not resume its rocket fire.
Analysts say Hezbollah may be risking further losses while its leadership is limited and its benefactor, Iran, weakened. Also, the path of the party’s front line, through Syria, was blocked in December when the Syrian President, Bashar Al-Assad, an ally of Hezbollah, was ousted by the rebels.
“Hezbollah commanders have some rockets, they have some guns, they have some guns, they can do something,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanon analyst at the Washington Institute for East Composs, a foreign research group.
“But they are killing themselves if they do this, because they know that any kind of attack by Hezbollah means that Israel will take the opportunity to take back the full and destroy whatever is left of them,” said Mrs. Ghaddar.
Hezbollah may also be trying to reduce support among its Shiite Muslim base, especially in the next parliamentary elections, Ms. Ghaddar said. The Lebanese community of Shinon paid a huge price for Hezbollah’s decision to go to war with Israel in October 2023 in solidarity with the ally hama. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon bore the brunt of the next Israeli air campaign and ground attack.
“If the Shia don’t vote, this is the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Ghaddar, the author of a book about Hezbollah’s relationship with its foundation. “They can’t really do anything if they don’t know 100 percent that the Shia community will support it.”
Because Hezbollah is unlikely to resume fighting, Gaza cease-fire is considered a very serious pain.
But its biggest stress test is not expected until the end of March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the provision during this initial 42-day period.
In the meantime, Israel has signed that it wants to keep the mine fire in order to support the release flow. But an extension would require both sides to agree to an end to the war — a bridge that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel has appeared reluctant to cross. Mr.
The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility. Trece can continue beyond the 42-day mark as long as both parties keep discussing whether they have made a permanent arrangement.
But Israeli officials say they cannot remain locked in endless fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing the hostages. And Hamas is likely to continue releasing the hostages, its biggest bargaining chip, despite Israel’s promise to cease hostilities forever.
“Hamas wants an end fire, but there is no cost,” said Mkhaikar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza. “They want a fire that ends the war.”
Much can depend on the willingness of the President of President Thujole Mr. And Netanyahu is looking at a permanent Thrace. Mr. Trump’s secret messages to the Prime Minister of Israel were important in the first phase of the explosion, but it remains to be seen whether the American President will maintain that position beyond a few weeks.
“If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, there will be a renewal of the war,” said Mr. Abusada. “If Trump keeps his promise that he doesn’t want wars and wants more peace – whether it’s in Gaza, Ukraine or the rest of the world – that’s something different.”