Henry McKenna
NFL reporter
This matchup is better than a plate of chicken wings.
Better than a plate with burnt ends.
When Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen come out, they make magic. It has become history that Mahomes did less magic than Allen, which is why the Bills did not beat the Chiefs last season during the Allen-Mahomes season. Mahomes beat Allen 3-0 in the season opener. And the type of Bills that defeated the Ravens on Sunday night – while impressive – is not the type that can beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
The Bills can win on Sunday, even if they are down, according to sports publications. I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the season even started. I’m holding on to it. And it’s not crazy — even knowing what’s happened in past postseasons — because Buffalo beat Kansas City in Week 11, ending the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak.
Against the Ravens on Sunday, Allen finished with an EPA of 3.2. His completion percentage above expectations was 1.8%. The Bills’ 27-25 victory was exciting, but Allen’s film was not. He did not perform miracles. Yes, yes, he scored rushing touchdowns. But his contributions as a shortstop are only a small part of what makes him special. And James Cook or Ray Davis, Buffalo’s fourth-round rookie who had a short-yardage TD of his own, are more than capable of punting the ball.
Allen’s ho-hum acting wasn’t because he didn’t want to do something remarkable. In fact, we saw that glint in his eyes at the goal line in the fourth quarter when the Ravens stopped him and the QB almost threw to Cook, but he decided – wisely – that the risk wasn’t worth the reward.
A younger version of Allen may have done just that. And if the Bills were in a tough spot, he would have done it. But this game announced itself early: Lamar Jackson didn’t have it. The crows never had a lead. Against Baltimore, Allen needed to be a game manager, which is an important skill for all QBs – not only to manage the game, but also to know it. when again How to avoid catastrophic mistakes. As Lamar and the Ravens coughed, Allen seemed to know he could sit back and let the Bills carry him to victory.
It won’t be that easy when we face the Chiefs.
We will have to see all aspects of Allen’s extreme abilities against Mahomes.
Because while Allen is the better player, Mahomes is the bigger player.
What do I mean by that?
Well, probably about the third and fourth term and the fourth quarter. Mostly it’s about working within the rules of the game so that it feels like every call, every deflection, every inch turns in favor of the big QB team. Mahomes is so good at this that people think management likes him. (They don’t. According to Josh Dubrow of the APsince Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, the Chiefs have been penalized 693 more yards than their opponents, including the playoffs. That’s the fourth-worst difference in that period.)
But you’ll see, if you get into X, that people are starting to wonder the same things about Allen that they wonder about Mahomes.
Do they get preferential treatment from inspectors? No, don’t be silly.
The NFL changed the rules to give more power to the point — and quarterback, in particular. It is a game of 33 starters and three divisions. But everyone knows it’s the quarterback who really owns it. The league has gradually adjusted the game design to help quarterbacks have a greater impact on the game. There seem to be a million ways to commit a bad penalty – even if the passer is no longer eligible (when the QB slides again or runs near the line). Violent hitting is more common in the middle, which gives value to guys like Travis Kelce and Khalil Shakir. And it helps QBs do their best work between the numbers.
During this season, we saw Allen take a step towards Mahomes as a game manager. Allen’s key accomplishment is that it’s not enough to make big plays. It’s about avoiding the negatives.
This season, the Bills QB has the fewest interceptions (15) of his career and the lowest interception percentage (2.4). His field goal percentage (39) is not as high as in previous seasons, but his field goal percentage (7.1%) is the second highest of his career. That is a reflection of his evolution as a decision maker.
In fact, there may not be a better decision maker in the NFL right now than Allen. He just showed that he is better than Lamar. And now he may be about to prove he’s better than Mahomes.
OK, so let’s admit a herd of buffalo into the room.
There’s a Bills history of heartbreaking moments in the postseason: “Wide Right,” “The Music City Miracle” and the famous 13 seconds. There are four Super Bowl victories. They follow each other. There is the aforementioned history of Allen losing to Mahomes. That’s a lot to overcome mentally. The NFL didn’t put the Bills in the locker room the same way it has the Browns or the Jaguars. But when it comes to postseason history, Buffalo is the organization’s second-best, which would be even sadder than 32-best.
Or maybe there is no difference. Ricky Bobby’s dad said it best: If you’re not the first, you’re the last.
Even with that historical knowledge, the 2024 Bills are structured differently. They are scheduled for January and February 2025.
They made changes this offseason and rebuilt their identity thanks to postseason success, and are currently the most physical offense in the NFL. The team’s reliable play helped Allen pick his spots more often as a player and avoid accidents. The team’s defense does not have any passing stars, but they are a group of players who prove how important continuity is in the development of talent. This is a team that has been largely integrated into the draft by GM Brandon Beane, in his role since 2017, to coach Sean McDermott, in his role since 2017. Eight of Buffalo’s 11 defensive starters were found in the draft.
Allen no longer has an elite player like Stefon Diggs, but the absence of a wide receiver has limited the QB’s point guard skills. He is an even better distributor than we expected. That’s another form of growth we’ve seen from him this year.
It is difficult to bet on Mahomes and the Chiefs, who are fighting for three points. But everything is coming together for this to be Allen’s season.
There’s no coherent argument for why the Bills aren’t winning other than: “Mahomes.” To that, I would reply: “But …. Allen.” In other words, QBs may one day be equal. Allen can be as great as Mahomes. But Allen needs to start proving that on Sunday.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and writer, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots at USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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