Tamil Nadu Housing and Urban Development Minister S. Muthusamy (second right) seeks votes for DMK’s VC Chandhirakumar (right) in Erode on January 15, 2025. | Photo Credit: M. Govarthan
In normal circumstances, by-elections should be a political audit of the government’s performance. In Tamil Nadu, although a few by-elections went in favor of the Opposition, most of them were in favor of the decision. The entire Cabinet and the official machinery work towards this goal, as the ruling parties treat bypolls as a matter of honor.
The upcoming polls for the Erode (East) Assembly constituency, on February 5, 2025, necessitated by the death of legislator EVKS Elangovan, however, pose little threat to the incumbent. With the General Assembly elections a year away, the Congress has stepped aside in favor of the alliance leader, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which has announced VC Chandirakumar, a former DMDK legislator, as its candidate.
Erode is witnessing the second bypoll in two years. In 2023, the bypoll was held after the death of Thirumagan Evera, son of Mr. Elangovan. The Congress succeeded in installing Mr. Elangovan in the by-election with the support of DMK. In this case, the Congress left it to the DMK, as the family members of Mr. Elangovan did not want to enter the competition.
The beauty of the impending bypoll was lost on the day when the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the main opposition party, announced its decision to boycott it. It is surprising, given the strength of the AIADMK movement in the western region, known as the Kongu belt.
Even today, the AIADMK is represented in the Assembly by many members from this region. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP is also not seeking the vote.
In a state where by-elections were fiercely contested and heralded a regime change, the AIADMK and NDA’s decision to boycott it exposes their inability to fight well, let alone win. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami justified his party’s decision on the grounds that the ruling party would abuse its power and not allow voters to vote freely.
Although the ruling party has an advantage in by-elections, as voters in the district generally do not take risks by electing an opposition candidate, the AIADMK could have left a mark if it had the BJP company. The absence of a strong coalition, rather than the “extremism of the ruling party”, as Mr. Palaniswami, is the reason for AIADMK’s boycott.
By-elections are important. The Dindigul Lok Sabha by-election in 1973 heralded the arrival and permanent dominance of the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu politics. In 1974, C. Aranganayagam (AIADMK), who later became a Minister in the Cabinet of MG Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa, won the Coimbatore West Assembly constituency polls during DMK rule. The DMK, too, had won the bypolls when the AIADMK was in power under the leadership of MGR.
It was the late AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa who insisted on bypolls. In 2002, he and his entire Cabinet campaigned in the Sathankulam by-election. When he fell out with his colleague and actor-turned-politician Vijayakant in 2011, he challenged him to field a candidate for the by-election in Tenkasi constituency, to prove his mettle.
The party started losing by-elections only after his death in 2016. TTV Dhinankaran, nephew of Ms. Jayalalithaa who trusted Mrs. Jayalalithaa, Sasikala, surprised by winning the polls in RK Nagar constituency, as an Independent, defeating DMK and AIADMK. candidates.
The DMK won 13 seats out of 22 Assembly seats in the polls held on the sidelines of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. These results predicted the expectations of the ruling AIADMK in the 2021 National Assembly elections.
Currently, the AIADMK may not be able to challenge the DMK if it remains a divided house, with one party led by Mr. Palaniswami and another former colleague O. Panneerselvam. The party also does not have a strong ally to tilt the balance in certain pockets.
The emergence of new players like Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam and Naam Tamilar Katchi’s good performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which have received recognition from the Election Commission, will bring many challenges if the AIADMK does not play its cards right.
Published – January 16, 2025 01:56 am IST