Britain’s busiest railway line, the west coast line, is set for a simultaneous development that will bring major disruption for up to a decade.
Network Rail plans to replace more than 150 miles of aging cables—originally installed in the 1970s—as well as extensive signal and track renewal. Industry insiders warn that the resulting closures will adversely affect passengers and businesses, with some sections of the line closed for weeks each year from 2026 onwards.
According to the planning documents, engineers will fully occupy the track for three fortnightly blocks in 2026, 2027 and 2028, which affects the main artery connecting Scotland and England. Similar “blockages” are expected to follow for much of the next decade between Crewe and Gretna, affecting Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith and Carlisle. While bus replacements are to be made, transport planners fear there could be major bus congestion across the UK, prompting some passengers to choose planes over trains.
One UK rail source described the scale of the planned disruption as “unprecedented in the last 25 years,” but stressed that the works, known in the industry as “Trilink,” are vital to the long-term future of the line. The full upgrade includes 155 miles of overhead wires, 140 miles of track and the renewal of 2,000 signaling units. Initial cost estimates approach £3.84 billion, spread over 10 to 15 years.
Avanti West Coast, which runs services from London to Scotland, carried 32 million passengers last year and is expecting major changes to the schedule, although the company says it is too early to confirm exact details. Analysts note that the abandoned HS2 extensions, which were once seen as key to reducing congestion on the west coast main line, mean the development work is inevitable if the line is to remain fit for purpose.
Scottish business leaders, including Stuart Patrick, chief executive of the Glasgow Chamber of Commerce, argue that the project highlights the UK’s struggle for long-term infrastructure planning. While he acknowledges the need to renew critical assets, he stresses the need for a strategic vision that encourages the shift from air to rail: “It’s becoming difficult to see how we’re going to achieve that without adding capacity to cross-border services.”
Liz Cameron, director of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, shares concerns about the impact on travelers but recognizes the importance of improvement. “We agree that a lot of work will definitely cause disruption, but it is important to minimize temporary disruption,” he said. Network Rail insists it is working closely with train operators and many industry stakeholders to plan the closures and manage the economic fallout.
The west coast main line underwent development between 1998 and 2009—a drawn-out process marked by political lines and rising costs. Lessons from that time are expected to inform this major overhaul, but with more and more years of partial closures guaranteed, millions of rail users will be forced to navigate a decade of long detours and changing times.