2024 NFL Wild Card pick, predictions: Running back Russell Wilson Less than passing yards

NFL Wild Card weekend is upon us, and I believe we are in for some exciting football.

There are a few games I’m looking at. In two of those games, I’m betting on the prop market, and in the last one, I’m looking at the first half spread.

Check out my picks and predictions for the first weekend of the NFL playoffs.

(All times ET)

SATURDAY, JAN. 11

Instruments @ Crows (8pm, Main Video)

The Steelers play the worst football of any playoff team. They have lost 4 in a row, including three sweeps to three playoff teams and a two-point loss to the Bengals last weekend. They haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of those four losses.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has regressed, and George Pickens is a no-show. The rushing game is gone, and the offense is just boring. Pittsburgh’s defense is still good, but it’s finally breaking out of these teams that can continue to send explosives while the Steelers’ offense falters.

The Ravens should run the business in this game. They play outstanding football and have the feel of a Super Bowl favorite. However, their lack of postseason success relative to their regular season success gives me pause in betting on covering this game.

I would make a case – a small case – that this black and blue decision game is three points as it often is. So there is nothing on the side, but I have two accessories for you.

Russell Wilson Over/Under 225.5 passing yards

In the last five games, Wilson has not thrown for more than 217 yards and that includes against this Ravens team in a blowout. The strange thing about his yards in that game is that a lot of the yards came in the first half. On the final three drives, when the Steelers tried to come back, Wilson threw a pick-six and the offense gained only 29 yards.

With Pickens seemingly disappearing from the offense, the Steelers’ weapons are limited against a good Ravens pass defense. Pittsburgh will also try to run the ball early in the game to avoid Wilson’s passing offense.

Also, getting a first down by using the ground in theory would limit the number of Wilson’s pass attempts.

PICK: Russell Wilson Under 225.5 passing yards

Jaylen Warren Over/Under 20.5 receiving yards

The Steelers started using Warren as their starting linebacker a month ago and then last weekend, they simply stopped. He went on a six-game hitting streak to one against the Bengals.

They will have to use Warren in the passing game against the Ravens. A screen play and a third-down completion will get Warren over 20.5 yards, which he has scored in six of the last nine games.

PICK: Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 yards receiving

SUNDAY, JAN. 12

The Broncos @ Debts (1pm, CBS, Paramount+)

This is an empty-the-playbook game for the Denver Broncos. By any means necessary, they have to win this game, even if they are only 10 points behind.

When I think about what that means for the Broncos offense, I think about quarterback Bo Nix using his legs on designed runs and scrambles against pressure. Nix has 92 interceptions this season and 14 in the past two weeks. Having a quarterback who can move like him gives the offense a huge advantage.

Quarterback runs often work because defenses have difficulty accounting for a quarterback in their scheme. They work in the third place down and in the red best.

The Broncos must use these to help him score on Sunday.

Ultimately, when the game gets out of hand, or gets out of hand, I saw Nix wanting to use his legs to push when no one was open. Just get the yards as fast as possible.

PICK: Bo Nix Over 5.5 rush attempts

Administrators @ The Buccaneers (8 p.m., NBC/Peacock)

I like Tampa Bay to get off to a fast start on Sunday night against the Commanders.

The Buckeyes played poorly against New Orleans to clinch their playoff berth. They were solid, and their defense was terrible in the first half. That was the final game for them. They needed to win to get in.

Now that that’s out of the way, I expect this veteran team to settle in on Sunday night.

Tampa Bay ranked first in the NFL regular season in points on opening drives. Has 11 drives including eight touchdowns.

Washington had a great season, but this is a tough spot for any team with a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks starting on the road don’t win many of these games and often don’t play up to their standards. There are butterflies, nerves and excitement.

I don’t expect Washington to handle these feelings well, and it will affect the Commanders’ play early. If they are stable, this he can be a game. But I resist what happened early.

PICK: Tampa Bay -2.5 first half

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle at the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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