It was supposed to be a relaxing day full of tacos, swimming and people watching. But it almost ended in disaster. Noah Mintz was on a trip to Sayulita, Mexico, with an ex-girlfriend, and went swimming in the ocean. The water seems fine.
As he made his way back to shore, with the water just below his knees and the sea at his back, he was knocked over by a potentially dangerous wave.
“I was just lying on the floor directly in the water, face down, unable to move,” said Mintz, 54, of Toronto. “I just thought, ‘Now is the time. I’m going to die right now.’
A strong wave appears to be 2.2 times larger than the surrounding average wave. They can kill, and catch people by surprise. They occur when ocean swells collide and combine to create a large wave, according to a study published by National Geographic.
According to the US National Ocean Service, powerful waves can also be created in a storm, when normal waves move against the normal direction of the current and combine with each other to form one large and long-lasting wave.
Although the number of bad waves is difficult to quantify – there is no tracking organization or injuries from them – Mintz is far from the only one who receives their power. One of the biggest waves ever recorded was off the coast of BC
Johannes Gemmrich, who studies these waves, says there should be more awareness of what they can do.
Most people think of a bad wave as something that can hit a yacht or cruise ship in the middle of the ocean. But they are more than that, he says.
“I think a lot of people don’t know about rogue waves, especially not that they can happen in a coastal area where a lot of people come into contact with the ocean,” said Gemmrich, an oceanographer at the University of Victoria.
Wave energy
As Mintz looked down at the water, he remembered important moments in his life, wanting to find the perfect one to focus on as he died.
Fortunately, he didn’t need to. Instead, his ex was able to find him in the water and investigate him. He was then hoisted onto a diving board and taken to shore, paralyzed but unconscious.
“I know I shouldn’t turn my back on you in the ocean, but I wasn’t thinking that,” Mintz said.
His neck was broken twice, along with bruises and cuts. After surgery and several months of rehabilitation, he made a full recovery, except for minor nerve damage on his left side.
He was able to emerge unscathed from his experience. But that’s not always the case.
A huge wave hit Ventura Beach in California last week, sending eight people to the hospital. But was it really a bad wave? About that producer Lauren Bird breaks down the science of rogue waves and why they’re so unpredictable.
Mary MacNutt, Tassie Notar and another friend were on vacation in Chacala, Mexico, in December 2023. They had just arrived, and MacNutt and Notar, who were 66 and 70 at the time, wanted to go swimming.
There were some waves, so the two decided to go down to the beach to find a calmer place. But as Notar and MacNutt, both from Toronto, were enjoying the sun and sea, a big wave started coming.
“This wave was unchanged. This wave was a monster wave,” said Notar, who estimated that it was about four meters long. “It was too high. And we both turned around and immediately started swimming to the shore.”
They didn’t know what to do. The tide was coming in fast, and they weren’t close enough to shore to turn back.
After the wave hit, Notar couldn’t find his friend. He ran to the sea, shouting for help, but no one moved. He then turned around and saw someone giving MacNutt CPR on the beach.
“We didn’t know it at the time, but he was already having a stroke,” Notar said.
Weeks later, he was flown to Toronto. He needed support to breathe, and they were told that he was unlikely to get better. He asked for alimony, he died on Jan. 7, 2024.
“All the while he was reassuring me. He said, ‘I’ve had a really good life. Don’t worry, I’ve had a really good life.’
What could be done?
Notar wonders what else they could have done when they saw the wave, and if there was a way to avoid it.
Gemmrich, an oceanographer, says that if it’s far, you can try to get to the shore. But even that is difficult, because it moves much faster than any swimmer.
“The best way is to dive into it. So wait until it gets close or back away a bit, but if it gets close, jump into it, because the power goes down with depth there.”
And instead of trying to avoid it, Gemmrich says the answer is early detection.
Early warning system
The study of rogue waves began in the 1990s, when one such wave was measured by a drilling rig equipped with scientific equipment. Before that, they were considered tall tales told by sailors.
“Even scientists thought it was impossible to have a wave twice as high as the background wave,” said Gemmrich.
Research on rogue waves began in the early 2000s. In 2020, what is considered by some to be the worst wave ever recorded measured 17.6 meters high, off the coast of Ucluelet, BC, well above the six meter waves around it.
Gemmrich studied that particular wave. He says that a bad tide usually happens once every few days, but if it’s small, or there are no people or boats around, no one notices.
And although the risk of such formations at high altitudes and in places that could cause danger to people is small, Gemmrich says it is important for people to be prepared.
That is why he has been making a plan to warn people in advance. It cannot predict where and when a strong wave will form, but it can anticipate when the conditions are ripe for another.
It takes forecasted wind patterns over the next few days, as well as the physics of ocean waves. It can then predict the generation and evolution of the wave field. You want general predictions to be used.
“That model is now working as a research model and will be transferred to Environment and Climate Change [Canada] in the near future to bring it into the domain of social prediction,” said Gemmrich.
Notar wishes there were better signs when he and MacNutt went swimming. Still looking for better signs near the resort where they live, specific to bad waves.
“A bad wave, for me, I think if people don’t know what it is, it sounds scary. And it’s different than a red flag on the beach,” said Notar.
Mintz learned from the experience. He is not afraid of the sea and is still willing to go for a dip. But be a little more careful on the beach.
“Like dealing with a wild animal, it’s very unpredictable. And you never turn your back on the sea until you’re out of it.”