Final Champions League predictions and best bets: Arsenal go from almost man to double winners by beating PSG | Football news
Arsenal face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and by ending their wait for the Premier League title, the Gunners have banished the fear, tension and doubt that plagued previous campaigns, writes guru Lewis Jones. He has three great tips…..
Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal, Champions League final, Saturday at 5pm
Arsenal winning the Premier League is a real game changer for me when it comes to this game from a betting point of view.
Arsenal are 11/10 with Sky Bet to win Saturday’s final – either in 90 minutes, extra time or on penalties – and complete the double. PSG are 8/11 favorites to lift the trophy for the second time in a row.
I think those chances should be close as the mentality of this Champions League final feels very low in betting. I expected the market to go well towards Arsenal since they won the Premier League – but it hasn’t changed at all.
Mikel Arteta has overcome a huge psychological barrier by winning the Premier League
Arsenal have borne the brunt of being almost men. But winning the Premier League changes everything.
That monkey has turned its back now. The emotional release at the end of crossing the line is important. You could see it at the celebrations – this is now a group suddenly freed from the fear of failure.
This final is now positioned as an opportunity rather than an obligation.
Winning the Champions League and finishing in the double will lift this season into the limelight – but if they fail, they are still Premier League champions.
History has already been written. This team has gone down in history no matter what happens here.
Arsenal are chasing the bonus prize. That makes Arsenal dangerous.
And even with the tactical setup I think Arsenal are very well equipped to stop PSG from having the space and space to really hurt them. Mikel Arteta will make this worse and produce a game where whoever defends the best, wins.
The Gunners have kept nine points from their last 14 Champions League games – the axis of David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel about to make their work world-class as PSG lead Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue.
Arsenal have yet to concede an opener in the knockout stages – and three of the four goals they have conceded in the league stage have come in the last two games where qualification has been assured – but they are very versatile.
This is the defense that can lead them to glory.
JONES KNOWS TOO BETTING: Arsenal to win Champions League (11/10 via Sky Bet)
On top of the resources?
Matches of this magnitude are full of betting opportunities when it comes to prop markets.
The angle I always like to focus on in the finals is foul play. The increased risk, the added incentive and the good chance that a game of this magnitude gets worse often sees higher negative averages than the algorithms that increase the price of these markets.
The last 30 Europa League and Champions League games averaged 28.5 mistakes in 90.
For context, this season the average Premier League game has seen 21.5 fouls in 90. And the Champions League saw 22.5 mistakes per game.
So from a basic drawing of the data with a very good sample size you could add six errors to the expected ratings for a major European final.
This means that there is a great opportunity here to support a player in the player abuse market.
The best bet is Bukayo Saka to make two or more mistakes at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
As with all bets in the player fouls market, the match is very important and the fight between Saka and Nuno Mendes will be ‘ugly’.
Mendes is drawing 1.7 fouls per 90 this season and doesn’t need much of an invitation to go down under minimal contact. Saka, a terrible draw in his own right, can be a pain in the ass with his offense especially in big games and is working at a 1.4 inefficiency with a 90 strikeout average in his last 20 games.
He made two or more mistakes in each of his last two games against Burnley and West Ham – and what’s even more interesting is that Saka made two mistakes in both of PSG’s exits last season alongside Mendes.
JONES KNOWS WELL JONES BET: Bukayo Saka to make two or more mistakes (11/10 Sky Bet)
Bukayo Saka is 11/10 to make 2+ mistakes with Sky Bet
Long shot…
Set-pieces are another area where Arsenal have the upper hand over PSG.
The Gunners have scored the most goals (24) and corner goals (18) in the Premier League.
Going back to the second leg meeting between the two last season, Arsenal created 0.77 expected goals from set-pieces in Paris. The long throw was in the net – it was a very difficult technique. The same is expected again.
So all the usual tricks of set-based betting are on the table here with Gabriel being the obvious starter. However, the odds of 15/2 with Sky Bet to score are excellent. We can be more greedy than that.
If he is going to score the goal is likely to come from a corner he is more likely to be able to, so the way to play Gabriel’s angle is to play a double bet with the BuildABet function.
Gabriel to score and Declan Rice to assist – that’s 25/1.
And Gabriel to score and Saka to assist – again 25/1.
Gabriel is 25/1 to score with an assist from Declan Rice or Saka
In the last two seasons, this type of betting has entered the Premier League and the Champions League five times.
And the Rice to Gabriel or Saka to Gabriel combo with chances created has happened 39 times over the past two seasons.
Of course, we have the added bonus of two bets that can land at different times in the match, too – so, if Gabriel scores and Saka or Rice assists another Arsenal goal then the bet will still come that way.
