2024 NFL Playoff picture: NFC top seeds, last two spots at risk in Week 18

By the end of Sunday night, all the fixtures will be set and the first six games of the NFL playoffs will be locked in the schedule.

But between now and then there’s still a lot to take in Week 18. The Vikings and Lions will battle Sunday night for the top seed in the NFC playoffs. And five teams are still fighting for the last two spots in the playoff field.

Here’s the full NFL Playoff picture as the teams begin what could be a wild Week 18:

(ix-Clinched playoff berth)

AFC

x-1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

Next game: Sunday, 4:25 pm ET at Denver Broncos (9-7). They are locked into the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will have a first-round bye and home field for every playoff game.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-2. Buffalo bills (13-3)

Next game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at New England Patriots (3-13). The AFC East champions are locked in at No. 2 and will play host to the seventh seed – either the Broncos, Dolphins or Bengals – in the first round of the playoffs.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-3. The Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

They sweated it out against the Cleveland Browns (3-14) and their third-string quarterbacks on Saturday. And with that, the Ravens won the AFC North title and locked up the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. They will play a first round game against the Steelers or Chargers. If the Chargers beat the Raiders on Sunday, they get the Steelers. If the Chargers lose, the world gets another Harbaugh Bowl.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-4. Houston Texas (9-7)

Next game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at Tennessee Titans (3-13). The AFC South champions are locked in the No. 4 seed and will play the fifth seed (Steelers or Chargers) in the first round of the playoffs.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-5. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

They ended the season with their fourth straight loss, dropping their finale to the Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) on Saturday. They lost the AFC North title, but will still be the 5th or 6th seed in the AFC playoffs. If the Chargers lose Sunday to the Raiders, then the Steelers finish fifth and head to Houston for a first-round game. If the Chargers win, the Steelers drop to sixth and head to Baltimore.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)

Next game: Sunday, 4:25 pm ET at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12). A win would move them up to the No. 5 seed, which would send them to Houston in the first round. If they lose, they finish sixth and head to Baltimore.

Playoff Chances: 100%

7. Denver Broncos (9-7)

Next game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m., at home against the Kansas City Chiefs (15-1). They need a win to earn a playoff spot and a first-round trip to Buffalo. If they lose, they are out.

Playoff Chances: 81%

Outside look inside:

Cincinnati Bengals (9-8): They still need a lot of help, but they are sure to make it to the end of the season. They won their fifth game in a row on Saturday, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7). But they need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs and Dolphins in order to lose to the Jets on Sunday to enter the playoffs. If they win, they head to Buffalo for the first round. Playoff Chances: 10%

The Miami Dolphins (8-8): Next game: Sunday, 4:25 pm ET at New York Jets (4-12). They will clinch a playoff berth (and a first-round trip to Buffalo) with a win and a Broncos loss (against the Chiefs). Playoff Chances: 9%

NFC

x-1. The Detroit Lions (14-2)

Next game: Sunday, 8:20 pm ET at home against the Minnesota Vikings (14-2). A win locks up the NFC North title, the No. 1 seed in the NFC, a first-round bye and home-field advantage in all NFC playoff games. The loss sends them to the fifth seed and puts them on the road to the postseason, which starts in Tampa, Atlanta or Los Angeles.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

Next game: Sunday, 1 pm ET at home against the New York Giants (3-13). The NFC East champions are locked into the No. 2 seed and will host a first-round game against the Packers or Commanders.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Next game: Sunday, 4:25 pm ET at home against the Seattle Seahawks (9-7). The NFC West champions would lock up the No. 3 seed with a win or loss for the Buckeyes (vs. The Saints). That will set them up for a first round game at home against the Packers or Commanders. If it loses and the Bucs win, it will advance to number 4, where it will play the loser of the Lions-Vikings game.

Playoff Chances: 100%

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Next game: Sunday, 1 pm ET at home against the New Orleans Saints (5-11). They will clinch the NFC South title with a Falcons win or loss (vs. Carolina). They could move up to No. 3 with a Rams win and loss (against the Seahawks), which would mean a first-round home game against the Packers or Commanders. If they stay at No. 4, they will play host to the loser of the Lions-Vikings game.

Playoff Chances: 89%

x-5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)

Next game: Sunday, 8:20 pm ET at Detroit Lions (14-2). With a win, they will clinch the NFC North title, the No. 1 seed. 1 in the NFC, a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they lose, they stay at No. 5 and will go on the postseason road, starting in Tampa or Los Angeles.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-6. Washington Commanders (11-5)

Next game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at Dallas Cowboys (7-9). They lock up the 6th seed with a win or if the Packers lose to the Bears. That would send them to Los Angeles or Tampa in the first round of the playoffs. If they lose and the Packers win, they slip to the seventh seed and start the playoffs in Philadelphia.

Playoff Chances: 100%

x-7. The Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Next game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET at home against the Chicago Bears (4-12). If they win and the Commanders lose, they will move up to the sixth seed and open the playoffs in Los Angeles or Tampa. Otherwise, they stay at No. 7 and went to Philadelphia in the first round.

Playoff Chances: 100%

Outside look inside:

The Atlanta Falcons (8-8): Next game: Sunday, 1 pm ET at home against the Carolina Panthers (4-12). They will clinch the NFC South title and the No. 4 seed in the NFC with a win and a loss for the Buckeyes (vs. The Saints). That would have them play at home in the first round against the loser of the Lions-Vikings game. Playoff Chances: 11%

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He has spent the last six years covering the Giants again The jets of SNY TV on New Yorkand before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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