As we enter 2025, it is time to take a measured and analytical approach to what the year may hold for Bitcoin. By considering on-chain, market cycles, macroeconomic data, and more to come together, we can go beyond pure speculation to paint a data-driven picture in the coming months.
MVRV Z-Score: Plenty of High Power
The MVRV Z-Score measures the ratio between the Bitcoin value acquired (the average acquisition price of all BTC in the network) and the market cap. Measuring this volatility ratio gives us the Z-Score, which historically provides a clear picture of market cycles.
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For now, the MVRV Z-Score suggests we still have great potential. While previous cycles have seen Z-Score reach values above 7, I believe anything above 6 indicates overextension, which encourages a closer look at other metrics to identify the market’s peak value. Currently, we are moving at levels comparable to May 2017—when Bitcoin was valued at only a few thousand dollars. Given the historical context, there is room for many hundreds of percent of potential gains from current levels.
Pi Cycle Oscillator: Bullish Momentum Resumes
Another important metric is the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom indicator, which tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historically, when these rates fall, they usually indicate an intraday Bitcoin price peak.
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The distance between these two moving averages has begun to trend upward again, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. While 2024 saw periods of consolidation on the side, the breakout we are seeing now shows that Bitcoin is entering a strong growth phase, which may last for several months.
Descriptive Section of the Cycle
If you look at Bitcoin’s historical price action, cycles often include a “post-halving cooldown” that lasts 6-12 months before entering a phase of noticeable growth. Based on previous cycles, we are approaching this exit point. Although diminishing returns are expected compared to previous cycles, we can still see significant gains.
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For context, breaking the previous high of $20,000 in the 2020 cycle led to a high near $70,000—a 3.5x increase. If we see even a 2x or 3x save from the last price of $70,000, Bitcoin could realistically reach $140,000–$210,000 this cycle.
Macro Factors Supporting BTC in 2025
Despite the headwinds in 2024, Bitcoin is performing strongly, even against a strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY). Historically, Bitcoin and DXY move in opposite directions, so any reversal in DXY’s strength could further push Bitcoin higher.
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Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and global M2 money supply, suggest improving conditions for Bitcoin. The decline in liquidity seen in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, setting the stage for an even better environment.
Cycle Master Chart: A long way to go
The Bitcoin Cycle Master Chart, which includes multiple valuation metrics in the chain, shows that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to grow before reaching overvaluation. The upper bound, currently around $190,000, continues to rise, reinforcing the view of further upside.
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The conclusion
Currently, almost all data points are aligned with a bullish 2025. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, however the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin’s best days may be ahead, even after the incredibly positive year 2024.
For more depth on this topic, check out the latest YouTube video here: Bitcoin 2025 – A Data-Driven Outlook
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.