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The price of Dogecoin is currently down -34% from its December 8 high of $0.4843. But according to crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), DOGE has one of the “best looking” charts at the moment. In a new broadcast on X, he provided an in-depth look at Dogecoin, the broader marketplace, and key technical indicators.
Dogecoin: Price Recovery or Disaster?
Despite the current recovery, Kevin believes that Dogecoin’s chart “looks really good at the moment” and it seems stronger than many other cryptocurrencies: “This is a strong coin compared to many markets. I mean, Doge looks really good here. […] Won’t it look good a week from now? Yes it’s possible, but it looks really good right now. “
However, he emphasized the possibility of a short-term pullback—something that could bring Dogecoin down to the $.026 region: “In the short term, can we come back and test 26 cents? Which is something I’ll throw out there […] I see no real reason to be uber bearish […] but is it possible for us to come back down here? Absolutely.”
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The range of $0.26 to $0.28 appeared as a critical condition for Dogecoin’s near-term outlook: “As long as we are above this level of 28 to 26 […] I see no reason for great fear. If we pierce that level […] A loss of R0.26 cents per weekly close would be catastrophic.”
Kevin followed this target back in November, when he first suggested that Dogecoin would revisit the gold pocket near $0.26. According to him, many were skeptical, but that level was finally affected: “I took a lot of heat going back to early November when we were at 45 cents. […] We finally went back down and checked that.”
On the upside, Kevin points to a major resistance area between $0.30 and $0.35, calling it “big, big resistance.” Following that, he lists $0.94 to $1.00 as his “next big spot,” though he cautioned traders against taking a confirmed climb.
For Dogecoin to break the previous high and truly enter “full price recovery,” Kevin wants to see a break above the Fibonacci retracements of 0.703 and 0.786—about $0.53 and $0.59 cents, respectively: “I don’t see anything which holds. Dogecoin is back in full price recovery […] We want to break 53 cents […] then 0.786 for 59 cents. If we go through that 60 cents area, I don’t see anything slowing down Dogecoin. “
Drawing parallels to past market cycles, Kevin highlighted how Dogecoin historically fits in with its “bull market support group” and macro support levels prior to the confluence: “We came back, we checked structural support. […] a bull market support belt in this cycle. This is very similar to [the previous cycle]. You can’t deny the similarities.”
He explained how Dogecoin’s current chart shows cyclical patterns “almost insanely,” referring to a breakdown followed by a falling trough, an initial climb, and a major support retest: “Crypto has this uncanny ability to follow its cyclical nature of performance. […] it’s really, really amazing.”
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Despite the inconsistency of the Dogecoin cycle, Kevin reminded the audience that external market factors and the performance of Bitcoin (which he calls “the market leader”) can often disrupt patterns: “Obviously we need Bitcoin to cooperate. We can’t have crazy situations happen around the world. “
Kevin also analyzed the DOGE/BTC pair, noting the major trend line and gold pocket test: “We have this major trend line. […] we broke in and came back. We are currently in a bull market support band […] We came back and tested the big gold package again.”
He emphasized that if Dogecoin stays above this area on the DOGE/BTC chart, it should move higher. The split, however, could pose a problem: “It’s kind of like that 26 cent rate […] when we go down and break […] it will coincide with the break of the bull market support band and this big gold pocket, where we could be in very deep s**t.”
Kevin also weighed in on the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that could impact Dogecoin and the broader crypto sphere. He pointed out that President Donald Trump returns to the White House in January “very strong” if it leads to improved regulations, less conflicts, and growth policies: “We have Trump coming to office in January, which means there will be a crypto-friendly administration […] If we can get Ukraine’s war with Russia to end, that will be a boon in the markets […] We can get inflation back to 2% and start lowering interest rates immediately.”
When and How Much Will the DOGE Rise Again?
From the December drop to the Q1 prospect, Kevin noted how market participants tend to make expectations about a month in advance. He suggested that if January ends up not going well, February could be the point where the markets start a real upswing: “Everyone thought that October would improve. October was unsuccessful. November was happy. Now everyone thinks that January will be better […] Maybe February has tried.”
When pressed for a specific price, Kevin pointed to several Fibonacci extensions and the Pi Cycle Top indicator on the Dogecoin chart: “If we break the previous highs, the next resistance area will be $0.94 to $1.32. […] If we break through $1.32, the next major resistance area I’m looking at is $2.19 to $2.78.”
However, he made it clear that any long-term price prediction is highly dependent on technical indicators and confirmations. He highlighted several monthly indicators—the MACD, the RSI, the Stoch RSI, and the Pi Cycle Top—as potential signs of exiting positions: “I don’t care what the price is at that time. […] when we go up to that point, I take the profit off the board. When the monthly indicators start flashing, I’m out.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.32.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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