History tells us that all freedom is conditional. In 1920, the Soviet Union became the first country in the world to legalize abortion, as part of society’s commitment to the health and well-being of women. Sixteen years later, that decision was reversed when Stalin came to power and noticed that birth rates were falling.
The pressure on all nations to keep up with their population is never-ending. But by 2025, that demographic diminution will be even greater—and the casualties will be gender rights. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the birth rate has been declining for 15 years. In Japan, Poland, and Canada, the fertility rate has already dropped to 1.3. In China and Italy, it is 1.2. South Korea has the lowest rate in the world, at 0.72. A study published by the medical journal Lancet predicts that by the year 2100, almost all countries in the world will not have enough children to maintain their population.
The upside is that women have more access to contraception, are better educated than ever before, and are pursuing careers that mean they are more likely to avoid or delay having children. Parents invest a lot of money in each child they have. The patriarchal expectation that women should be more than child bearers is thankfully disappearing.
But the original problem remains: How do countries create more children? Governments have responded with requests and incentives to encourage families to have children. Hungary has abolished income tax for mothers under the age of 30. In 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un was seen crying on television as he urged the National Conference of Mothers to do its part to stop the declining birth rate. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni has backed a campaign to reach at least half a million children born a year by 2033.
As these measures fail to have their effect, however, the oppression of women takes another, more sinister turn. Conservative pro-natalist organizations promote the classic nuclear family with many children, which can only be achieved if women wean early. This idea has at least informed a damaging crackdown on abortion access in some US states. Anyone who thinks that abortion rights have nothing to do with people’s concerns should be aware that in the summer of 2024, US Senate Republicans also voted against making contraception a federal right. This same view of the world includes increasing tensions against a small group of genders and sexes, whose presence in others poses a threat to the traditional family. The most extreme pro-natalists included white supremacists and eugenists.
The more countries worry about birth rates, the greater the risk to gender rights. In China, for example, the government has taken an increasingly anti-women stance in recent years. President Xi Jinping told the All-China Women’s Federation meeting in 2023 that women should “work hard to cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing.”
At the moment, most women are at least able to choose if and when they have children, and how many children they have. But with interest rates falling below replacement rates, there is no telling how far other nations may go to improve their population levels. 2025 looks like the year when their choice can be removed.
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