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Bitcoin’s price recovery from its new high of $108,353 on Tuesday to around $96,000 (-11.5% pullback) has caused intense speculation about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak. To address the growing uncertainty, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, released a series on X that describes 18 on-chain metrics and models. “Where is Bitcoin TOP?” Schultze-Kraft asked, before laying out his detailed analysis.
Has Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Top?
1/ MVRV Ratio: A long-term measure of unrealized profit, the MVRV ratio compares the market value to the realized value. Historically, readings above 7 indicated overheated conditions. “Right now it’s around 3 – the growth room,” notes Schultze-Kraft. This suggests that, in terms of unrealized gains, the market has not yet reached the levels associated with macro tops.
2/ MVRV Price Bands: These bands are derived from the number of days MVRV has worked at extreme levels. The upper band (3.2) has been exceeded on approximately 6% of trading days historically. Today, this upper band corresponds to a price of $127,000. Given that Bitcoin is sitting around $98,000, the market has yet to reach the point that marked the historically high formation.
3/ Long-Term Owner Profit (Unrealized Profit Related to LTH-NUPL): Long-term owners (LTHs) are considered stable market participants. Their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is currently at 0.75, entering what Schultze-Kraft calls “euphoria territory.” He noted that in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran another ~3x after hitting similar levels (although he clarified that he does not expect a repeat). Historically high formations often see LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. So, while the metric is up, it hasn’t reached the previous cycle’s breakthrough.
Notably, Schultze-Kraft admitted that his comments may be final because the 2021 cycle reached a somewhat higher rate of lower profits than in previous cycles. “I would have expected these profitability metrics to reach slightly higher levels,” he explained. This may indicate decreasing peaks in successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical excesses may decrease over time.
4/ Annualized Profit/Loss Ratio: This metric measures the total profit made against the loss made in the previous year. The peaks of the previous cycle saw values of more than 700%. Currently at around 580%, it still shows “growth space” before reaching historically high market levels.
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5/ Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio: The first on-chain metric, comparing the total Bitcoin market capitalization to the accumulated mining costs (Thermocap). In previous bull runs, the extremes of the ratio have been aligned with market peaks. Schultze-Kraft advises caution on specific target ranges but notes that current levels are nowhere near past extremes. The market remains subject to historical thermocap multiples that indicate overheated conditions in the past.
6/ Thermocap Multiples (32-64x): Historically, Bitcoin has reached about 32-64 times than Thermocap. “We’re at the bottom of the list,” Schulze-Kraft said. Hitting the top band in today’s environment would mean that the Bitcoin market is just over $4 trillion. Given that the current market capitalization ($1.924 trillion) is very low, this suggests the possibility of a significant increase if historical patterns continue.
7/ Investor Tool (2-Year SMA x5): The Investor Tool uses the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the price and a 5x multiple of that SMA to signal potential upside areas. “The current showing is $230,000,” Schultze-Kraft noted. Since the current price of Bitcoin is below this level, the indicator has not yet flashed a consistent high signal.
8/ Bitcoin Temperature (BPT6): This model uses the deviation from the 4-year moving average to capture the extremes of the circulation values. Historically, BPT6 was reached in previous bull markets, and that band now sits at $151,000. With Bitcoin at $98,000, the market is still short of levels previously associated with overheating.
9/ True Market Mean & AVIV: True Market Mean is another cost basis model. The MVRV-equivalent, known as AVIV, measures how far the market deviates from this. Historically, elites have seen more than 3 standard deviations. Today’s equivalent is “values above ~2.3,” while the current reading is 1.7. “Room to grow,” Schulze-Kraft said, meaning that by this metric, the market has not yet expanded to its historical highs.
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10/ Low/Medium/High Models (Delta Cap Derivatives): These models, based on the Delta Cap metric, historically showed reduced prices during the 2021 cycle, did not reach the ‘Top Cap.’ Schultze-Kraft urges caution in interpreting this because of the development of market structures. Currently, the middle cap level sits at around $4 trillion, roughly 2x current levels. If the market follows the previous patterns, this will allow for more growth before reaching higher highs.
11/ Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDDM): This metric measures the liquidity of coins held for a long time compared to an annual average. Historically, extreme values above 2.9 have indicated that older coins were hitting the market hard, often during late bull markets. Right now, it’s at 2.2, not yet at extreme levels. “Room to grow,” notes Schulze-Kraft, suggesting that not all long-term owners are fully prepared to take advantage.
12/ Mayer Multiple: The Mayer Multiple compares the price to the 200-day SMA. Overbought conditions in previous cycles corresponding to prices above 2.4. Currently, a Mayer Multiple of more than 2.4 would correspond to an average price of $167,000. With Bitcoin under $100,000, this limit remains far away.
13/ Cycle Extremes Oscillator Chart: This combination uses binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk) to show cycle extremes. “Currently 2/4 open,” meaning that only half of the overheated market conditions are met. Previous peaks are aligned with the full set of activated signals. As such, the chart suggests that the cycle has not yet reached a full bullish magnitude.
14/ Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A price-based signal that has historically identified cycle tops by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages. “Currently the short moving average is sitting below the larger ($74k vs. $129k),” said Schultze-Kraft, indicating that there is no cross and thus no classic high signal.
15/ Sell-Side Risk Ratio (LTH version): This ratio compares the realized profit and loss in realized market capital. High prices are associated with volatile, late-stage bull markets. “The interesting place is at 0.8% and above, while we are currently at 0.46% – an area where we have to grow,” explained Schultze-Kraft. This means that, despite the recent profit taking, the market has not entered the selling pressure zone that is often seen near the top.
16/ LTH Inflation Rate: Schultze-Kraft highlighted the Long-Term Energy Inflation Rate as “the cheapest chart I’ve come across so far.” Although he did not provide specific target values or limits for the quote, he said it is “shouting.” Investors should monitor this carefully as it may indicate increased distributions from long-term owners or other structural headwinds.
17/ STH-SOPR (Short-Term Profit Ratio of Short-Term Holder): This metric measures the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders. “Right now it’s high, but it’s not sustainable,” Schulze-Kraft noted. In other words, while short-term participants are taking profits, the data has yet to show the kind of persistent, aggressive profit-taking typical of market tops.
18 Ribbons/ SLRV: These ribbons track trends in short and long term visual value. Historically, when both moving averages rise and fall, it indicates a market turning point. “Both moving averages are still growing, becoming a beachhead for round tops and crossovers. There is no indication that there is an upper hand at this time,” Scultze-Kraft said.
Overall, Schultze-Kraft emphasized that these metrics should not be used in isolation. “Never rely on single data points – correlation is your friend,” he advises. He acknowledged that this is an incomplete list and that the evolving Bitcoin ecosystem—now with ETFs, regulatory clarifications, institutional acquisitions, and national features—may make historical comparisons less reliable. “This cycle may look very different, but the details (of history) are the only ones we have,” he concluded.
Although many metrics show that the Bitcoin market is entering an exciting and profitable territory, few have reached the historical extremes that mark the peaks of the previous cycle. Indicators such as MVRV, profitability ratios, hot metrics, and various price-based models generally suggest “growth space,” although at least one—the LTH Inflation Rate—suggests a note of caution. Some combinations are activated slowly, while classic high signals like the Pi Cycle Top remain inactive.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,037.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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