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As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fly higher, setting expectations for the entire cycle. The latest Bitfinex reports suggest when BTC’s peak may come and how much upside there may be left in the top crypto.
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Bitcoin’s ‘Unique’ Cycle
In its latest Alpha report, Bitfinex highlighted the crypto industry’s major strides in mainstream adoption and recognition this year, setting this cycle apart from the past.
Notably, the launch and increased institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot-traded funds (ETFs) exceeded expectations and attracted a “new class of investors” in the crypto space.
According to the report, this cycle was “unique” as these new investors brought by ETFs and the increasing confidence in the sector sent the price of BTC to a new ATH before the Halving event, which historically led to a new high of the crypto in 5-7. months.
The industry has also seen a growing interest in diversifying national reserves with cryptocurrencies, with several authorities around the world considering implementing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve after the recent cryptocurrency boom.
According to Bitfinex analysts, these factors have kept the BTC correction smaller than other cycles and will likely continue this trend until the end of the run:
In the current bull cycle, which started in mid- to late 2023, Bitcoin’s correction has been small, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand providing consistent buying pressure, we expect this trend to continue, sustaining the future. repairs are limited and likely to be short-lived.
In addition, crypto-friendly US regulators added to the growing bullishness surrounding the industry, leading to a massive post-election rally. As a result, the crypto market has grown 130% year-to-date (YTD) to a market capitalization of 3.69 trillion, growing almost 70% this quarter.
What’s Next for Bitcoin This Cycle?
The report noted the performance of Bitcoin, highlighting its 573% increase from the 2022 low of $15,487. The crypto-flagship has also seen 130% year-to-date (YTD) growth, fueled by this year’s industry breakthroughs.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 barrier for the first time, setting a new ATH near the $110,000 level on Monday. According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency still has several levels to rise in 2025, as historical data shows that the market is in the middle of a cycle.
This data suggests the price of BTC will probably increase around Q3 and Q4 2025, as it usually does about 450 days after the halving. Meanwhile, metrics such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Bull-Bear market index show that “we remain in the bull phase but far from euphoric peaks.”
Bitfinex also explained that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically performed well on the top of the time cycle, predicting tops in a three-day window. Previous cycle predictions indicate that Bitcoin could rise between 2025 and early 2026.
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If it follows the cyclical pattern of 2021, BTC could see its price experience a 40% increase to $339,000 and reach a peak around June or July 2025. However, the report notes that the flagship crypto has been in a trend of diminishing returns during cycles.
Based on this, the Bitcoin price may see a 15% to 20% increase to the $160,000-$200,000 range instead. However, if the cryptocurrency shows the cyclical pattern of 2017, the BTC rally may extend until January of 2026, reaching $229,000 with the same diminishing returns.
As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below its ATH.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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