And then, the big problem: Who should be held accountable for that? The world called the global south is pushing money to step from developed countries to those that are left behind, that have not participated in the history of climate problems. The developed world, on the other hand, wants to commit to carbon emissions in developing countries, partly as a matter of protecting industrial and technological competitiveness.
Complicating this issue is the situation of China, which accounts for one-third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, more than any other country. Despite this, the UN is still considered to be on the road to development, meaning it is not legally bound by the same economic obligations as the world’s biggest polluters. However, Beijing may choose to make bold commitments to boost its international prestige.
Who’s There—And Who’s Absent?
Ambassadors from nearly 200 countries came to Baku. Among the first to arrive, who left last week, was an American.
However, the outgoing US president Joe Biden is not expected at the conference. And there is no Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who is busy with the establishment of the new EC at the beginning of December; in his place is the European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, who enjoys a reputation as an excellent ambassador. Brussels’ negotiating position has been affected by the impact of severe flooding in Valencia, Spain, in recent weeks, and this shows the need to devote more resources to climate change.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is facing a government crisis, will be absent. So did the French president, Emmanuel Macron, due to disagreements with Baku regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Along with him, many French NGOs will not participate.
Also not staying at home are Chinese president Xi Jinping, who will send new envoy Liu Zhenmin; Russian president Vladimir Putin; and Brazilian president Lula, who has been replaced by environment minister Marina Silva. Leaders from Japan, Australia (another major polluter), and Mexico will also be absent.
Making waves is the decision by Papua New Guinea—one of the countries most affected by climate change—to boycott COP29. “All major emitters around the world are pledging millions of dollars to help fight climate change,” said PNG foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko. “But I can tell you that everything will be given to advisers, who will ask the countries in question not to pass.”
What Impact Will the US Election Have?
The elephant in the room is Donald Trump’s latest victory. Back in 2016, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, which set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius; Joe Biden then joined the climate compact as soon as he got to the White House.
The problem is that Trump’s intentions remain difficult to interpret. Trump has signaled his desire to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and withdraw from the UN conference that oversees the COPs, “which will make Washington not even involved in the negotiation tables as an observer,” said Jacopo Bencini, a researcher at the Carbon Markets Hub at the European University Institute in Florence.
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