Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Overall, bookies enjoyed the NFL Week 10 odds market.
Dozens of underdogs have been covered and sportsbooks have been refunded, after public betting mobs have shut down the books in the last four to five weeks.
However, it was about to be a big pull into the house. Close as in, a loss to the Denver Broncos on a blocked field goal and a one-point loss to the Washington Commanders.
Ditto for the wins that turned into losses for the Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars.
“We’ve been knocking on the door of the NFL Sunday for years. We’ve been looking for Xanadu,” Prime Sportsbook chairman Joe Brennan Jr. said. “But this league is a fickle woman.”
So instead, Prime and other operators usually set themselves up for a nice Sunday win.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks around the country are repeating the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Command the Chiefs
As usual, the Chiefs were a popular game in the Week 10 NFL odds. Of course, the point spread went to the Broncos all week, from the opening Chiefs -9.5 down to 7.5 and even -7 in some places.
But you can’t stop the public from Patrick Mahomes. So when KC won by just 16-14 — on a blocked field goal as time expired — the books were good on that score.
However, the Chiefs are always on the money. Most pundits wanted the Broncos to make a chip-shot 35-yard field goal and get an outright 17-16 win, to blow up those moneyline conversations.
“It would have been much better if Denver had made a field goal,” said Jeff Sherman, senior vice president of risk at SuperBook. “A Tampa or Denver win would have made it even bigger [win] by letter.”
Indeed, the Buckeyes had their chances to upend the San Francisco 49ers, who were road favorites by 6.5 points. But Tampa Bay lost 23-20 on the second field goal.
BetMGM would like a Tampa upset, too. However, Denver, BetMGM did well in Kansas City to avoid its first loss of the season.
“That blocked kick really helped. We wanted a KC win and a Denver cover,” said BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini.
Moneyline Magic
Underdogs were 10-3 against the spread (ATS) heading into Sunday night’s NFL Week 10 odds. That’s never a good sign for recreational bettors, who thrive when favorites win and cover.
In Sunday’s first round, the Buffalo Bills (-4.5) are the only favorite among the eight to cover the spread, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 30-20.
“The favorites going 1-7 ATS, that’s always good for the book,” Cipollini said.
However, as noted above, even though the favorites didn’t put together much on Sunday, they usually managed to win the game at least. Especially the public favourites, with the good news of the public betting pile.
We have already mentioned Kansas City and San Francisco. Add to that the league’s most successful betting team, the Detroit Lions. On Sunday night, the Lions didn’t play like 4-point road favorites vs The Texans.
But they rallied from a 23-7 halftime deficit to win 26-23, on another second field goal.
As noted above, the popular Bills won and were consolidated. So did the Philadelphia Eagles (-7), who beat the reigning Dallas Cowboys 34-6. The Minnesota Vikings (-7), despite scoring just four goals, defeated the athlete Jaguars 12-7.
“We had a lot of moneyline play on the favorites, and a lot of it was parlays,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
Added Sherman of The SuperBook: “Enough favorites have won: Chiefs, Niners, Bills, Eagles, Lions. [still] good day We needed the Texans in the end.”
Scott Shelton of BetMGM Nevada echoed Sherman’s sentiments.
“We ended up having a little bit of success,” Shelton said. “We really needed the Texans to win outright. There were a lot of moneyline games where the Lions were the last piece of the puzzle.
“We were also killed by the Lions in the game.”
Of course, another public betting market such as in-game betting on the popular favorite is lagging behind. So Detroit fits that bill perfectly on Sunday night.
Brock Purdy, 49, survived the first game of Christian McCaffrey vs. Baker Mayfield, Bucs
On campus
Week 11 of college football saw consensus on the Georgia vs. Ole Miss in the SEC. Pretty much every sportsbook needed the Rebels at home by 2 points to at least cover the short point spread.
Even better: Ole Miss wins outright. And that happened, as the Rebels were shocked to win 28-10.
“Ole Miss outright is one of the house’s biggest winners of the year,” said BetMGM commercial manager Seamus Magee.
Added South Point’s Andrews: “Ole Miss was very good for us.”
Not so: Alabama, a 2.5-point road favorite, crushes LSU 42-13.
“That was bad. We needed LSU. But overall, it was a good, solid day,” Andrews said.
Helping South Point and dozens of other books: The cover machine that has spread across Indiana is finally not covered. The Hoosiers were 14.5-point home favorites vs. Michigan and went on to win 20-15.
Indiana is still 10-0 straight up (SU) and an excellent 8-2 against the spread (ATS). But the Hoosiers had their eight-game stretch at an end.
“I think the numbers finally worked out for Indiana. It was a good game for us,” Andrews said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting area. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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