On-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have started the distribution phase recently. Here’s what this could mean for the price of BTC.
Bitcoin Long-Term Owners Recently Sold Over 177,000 Tokens
As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, older coins have seen negative balance changes recently. Below is a chart from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock cited by an analyst, showing the remaining changes of different owner groups in the Bitcoin network.
The groups here are divided based on the holding period: investors who bought their coins within the last month fall within the <1 Month group (yellow), while those who bought between one and twelve months ago are included in the 1-12 Month Group (pink).
In the context of the present article, none of these are the focus; the third relevant group (blue), which consists of investors who have held for more than twelve months.
Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their money, the less likely they are to sell the coins at any time. So, the 12+ month cohort will put the strongest hands on the network.
From the chart, it is clear that these HODLers were busy accumulating during the bear market of 2022 and the recovery rally of 2023, but this trend saw a change in 2024.
During the first quarter of the year, the rebalancing of this Bitcoin cluster turned very red, which means that long-term holders were reaping the benefits of their patience.
These diamond hands finally saw the selling pressure dry up as the cryptocurrency’s consolidation following its new all-time high (ATH) extended to the end, their balance sheet changes reaching completely neutral levels.
Recently, as Bullish waves have returned to Bitcoin, the group’s rebalancing has turned red again, meaning these HODLers have started selling again.
As for what this might mean for cryptocurrency, perhaps a historical pattern can shed some light. “The tenure of the Long-Term Managers often serves as a counterintuitive indicator,” Maartunn said. “LTHs tend to buy (increase holdings) during price declines and sell (decrease holdings) during price increases.”
It appears from the chart, however, that while LTHs are timing their sales with the bull run, the real top of the cryptocurrency doesn’t happen until its distribution continues for a long time. This may mean there is room for BTC to enter the current rally, before the ceiling is hit.
Something that may invalidate the pattern, however, is the fact that the scale of sales from LTHs has been less strong this cycle, as IntoTheBlock pointed out in X’s post.
“Although long-term owners are selling, it is less aggressive than at previous bull peaks,” the statistics firm noted. Therefore, it is possible that the current Bitcoin cycle is establishing a new dynamic in the market.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,800, down more than 3% last week.
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