Early voting and mail-in registration have begun pouring in across the country, and county-by-county statistics show growing voter enthusiasm.
The latest polls suggest a narrow margin in the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and the results are expected to come down to the performance of each candidate in the seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada. and North Carolina.
States have long allowed at least some Americans to vote early, such as members of the military and people with disabilities who cannot get to the polls. Many states extended eligibility in 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis.
A man leaves the Board of Elections Loop Super Site after voting in the 2024 presidential election during the second day of early voting in Chicago on Oct. 4, 2024. (KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
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In the last presidential election, mail-in voting tended to upset the Democratic Alliance. In 2020, 60% of Democrats reported voting by mail, compared to 32% of Republicans, according to the report. 2021 study from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 52 million votes have been cast across the country.
Here’s a breakdown of where early voting, either by mail or in person, took place in seven battleground states, according to the Associated Press. Some states, such as Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania also provide for group classification of first ballots still cast.
Arizona – 1,617,983
Arizona’s early polls by party:
Democrats: 550,737
Republicans: 678,080
Third party voters: 389,166
Georgia – 3,058,098
Michigan – 1,992,670
Nevada – 786,437
Early voting in Nevada by party:
Democrats: 245,050
Republicans: 283,518
Third party voters: 184,437
North Carolina – 3,368,361
Early voting in North Carolina is by party
Democrats: 1,024,661
Republicans: 1,059,258
Unaffiliated voters: 1,000,343
Third party voters: 18,149
Pennsylvania – 1,550,128
Early voting in Pennsylvania is by party
Democrats: 849,849
Republicans: 468,067
Third party voters: 155,909
Wisconsin – 1,109,037
Over the past two decades, early voting has grown exponentially. Although early polls show voter enthusiasm, they do not reliably determine which candidate wins the race, because fewer voters are expected to vote early than in previous presidential elections.
Election workers oversee early election voting at a polling station in Marietta, Georgia, on Oct. 15, 2024. (REUTERS/Jayla Whitfield-Anderson)
In 2020, the Fox News Poll Analysis they found that 71% of voters vote before Election Day, 30% vote early and 41% vote by mail. In this case, polls suggest that nearly four out of 10 voters will show up before Nov. 5, according to a Gallup poll.
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Democrats and Republicans are expected to split slightly in early voting this cycle. In the past four years, Democrats have won the overall early vote by 11 points. However, two things have changed: first, with the COVID-19 pandemic now out of the way, many voters will be more determined to turn out on Election Day. Second, unlike in 2020, Trump and the GOP are no longer encouraging their voters to vote early. The result should be a narrower party gap once the votes are counted.
A sample ballot and voting sign is displayed on the first day of Virginia’s early voting at the Long Bridge Park Aquatics and Fitness Center on Sept. 20, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Some states also offer a breakdown of their early voting — for example, by party, race, or age. Comparing these results to other elections may give the impression that one candidate or party is now doing better than another.
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Additionally, while early voting data shows the party registration of some voters, it does not reveal how they voted. States do not release actual vote tallies until election night. Ballot data that some states now release shows the relative proportions of voters who requested or returned a ballot. However, that is not the same as their actual vote. For example, a voter may have registered as a Democrat decades ago, but chose to vote for Trump this year. Many voters are not registered with any party, making their vote a mystery.