Borissov’s Gerb Wins Bulgarian Election, But Deadlock Remains

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(Bloomberg) — Former Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov won a snap election on Sunday, but fell short of the majority needed to break the political deadlock in the Balkan country.

Borissov’s Gerb party won 26.4% of the instant vote on Sunday, according to a survey by Alpha Research and published by public television channel BNT. The election was the seventh vote in Bulgaria in less than four years.

His main rival, the anti-corruption coalition led by former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, came second with 14.9%. The Nationalist Revival Party, which has reiterated the Kremlin’s talking points and wants Bulgaria out of NATO, took 12.9%. Because of these close margins, the runner-up may change as the first official results come in the next few hours.

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Bulgaria has been in political turmoil since 2021, when anti-graft protests ended Borissov’s political rule after more than a decade. Since then, a series of interim authorities, both elected and caretaker, have ruled the EU’s poorest country. They have had to deal with the power crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while trying to keep Bulgaria on track to adopt the euro.

Many parties have repeatedly refused to cooperate with Borissov, leaving him with limited options to return to office despite a string of election wins. He has called on Petkov’s bloc to support him in a pro-western coalition, but his opponents have rejected outright support – and with Petkov having lost half of his electorate in June’s snap vote, it may not be enough. Borissov did not issue a proposal for a small cabinet.

“Two parties are enough” for the ruling majority, Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at Alpha Research, told BNT. “They will have to look for the third one. The question is which one,” as some groups “are not compatible in principle,” he said.

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Frustration helped boost the results of Revival, whose voter turnout has quadrupled since 2021. With seven parties entering parliament, two more anti-establishment parties may join them when the final results are announced.

The failure to find a way out of Bulgaria’s political turmoil has led to an increase in voter turnout. Although the number of voters on Sunday did not reach the lowest level, as few voters reached 38% voted, according to the exit polls.

Borissov will be the first to receive the mandate to form a government from President Rumen Radev. If Borissov fails to get support, the mandate will be given to the second largest party.

If that fails, Radev – a NATO-trained general known to stand up to Russia – will have to invite another party to form a government before he is forced to call new elections. Analysts are planning another parliamentary election next year.

(Updates with Alpha Research comments in section six, attendance figure in eight.)

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