This article is also available in Spanish.
Sina—professor, consultant, and founder and COO of 21stCapital.com—predicts that the price of Bitcoin may rise to $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a new analysis shared on X. Using a quantile regression model, Sina identifies different phases of the Bitcoin market cycle.
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The model identifies the Cold Zone (<33%) as the price range between $55,000 and $85,000. This zone represents the lowest possible range at the end of 2025 and suggests the right time to "accumulate aggressively."
The Warm Zone (33-66%), which ranges from $85,000 to $136,000, marks a time when the market is gaining momentum, and general attention is growing exponentially. During this phase, the price is expected to increase rapidly as “the train leaves the station.” Sina recommends a standard accumulation strategy here, such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), to gradually grow holdings.
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The most critical category, the Hot Zone (>66%), ranges from $136,000 to $285,000. This area is characterized by high volatility and significant price swings as high acceptance peaks and high positions become common.
While there is plenty of room to look up, the downside risk is growing rapidly. Sina advises investors to hold and enjoy the potential gains or consider a gradual exit based on risk assessment, especially since historical highs occur in the 90th to 99th quantile range. Notably, the 90th quantile starts at $211,000.
What surprises Sina is how well these 33% quantiles correspond to Bitcoin’s historical changes. He notes that Bitcoin tends to spend one-third of its time in each zone before moving on to the next, almost like clockwork. This pattern means that most of the bear market occurs below the 33% quantile, while the bull market excitement starts above the 66% quantile.
Popular crypto analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) agreed with Sina’s model, noting that it’s “a perfect explanation—very clear.” Sina, on the other hand, credited PlanC with the basic work that influenced his model.
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PlanC also recently updated its “Power Law Probability Model”, which predicts Bitcoin prices from $189,733 to $245,264 with the 97% to 99.9% quantile and $145,182 to $189,733 in the range of 90% to 97%. He emphasizes that despite appearances, the underlying data follow a power-law relationship, regardless of how they are plotted—either linear, log, or log scales.
“The data follows log and quantile regressions, while the rainbow chart uses logarithmic regression with a log-linear relationship. […] I don’t ‘draw’ these lines. This is a quantile regression of the log of price versus time, based on all the data we have so far,” he explains.
To adjust the predictive power of the model, PlanC elaborates on the importance of various values. The 99.9% quantile means that the price was above this line only 0.1% of the time, which equates to one day out of every 1,000 days—a very rare event. The 99% quantile indicates that the price crossed this line 1% of the time, or one day out of every 100 days, which is also considered unusual. In contrast, the 0.1% quantile indicates that the price fell below this line only 0.1% of the time.
At press time, BTC traded at $67,121.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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