Wall Street continued to set new records in October, but the absence of one major index from the list is starting to stand out, according to Raymond James. Statistics and technology strategist Javed Mirza pointed out in a note to clients that the Nasdaq 100 hasn’t set a record high since July. The relative struggles of that tech-heavy index sector may be a sign that the broader bull market is about to enter a new phase — and close to a peak, according to Mirza. “The Nasdaq 100 is a good proxy for the most ‘growing’ areas of the market and this negative divergence suggests that Portfolio Managers have begun to move away from areas focused on market growth, consistent with the transition to the later stages of the current 4-Year Cycle. The Nasdaq 100 has failed to recover peaked in July, despite the S&P 500, TSX Composite, and Dow Jones Industrials all posting higher prices,” Mirza wrote. .NDX 6M mountain The Nasdaq 100 hasn’t set a new record high since July. On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 was trading about 2% below its record close. Technical indicators suggest it won’t close that gap anytime soon. “The Nasdaq 100 has just initiated a new short-term ‘sell’ signal, diverging from other North American equity indices,” Mirza said. The decline in the Nasdaq 100 isn’t the only thing that points to a new phase of the bull market. Other notable data points include the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) which made the lowest prices and the Canadian TSX Composite surpassing the S & P 500, while WTI pushing above $ 94 per barrel could be the fourth point, Mirza wrote. To be sure, even the last stages of a bull market can last for a long time. Mirza says the “path of least resistance” is still up for the stock as a whole heading into 2025.
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