William Ruto, Rigathi Gichagua and Raila Odinga: Kenya’s ever-changing coalitions

Losing a deputy after just two years of being elected on a joint ticket may be seen as a big blow to the president, but not this time in Kenya.

As soon as Rigathi Gachagua appeared to be undermining William Ruto, he quickly moved away from his second position.

He has seen with his own eyes that the differences between the two main parties in Kenya can lead to the government not working properly after falling out with his former boss Uhuru Kenyatta.

Kenya’s unprecedented political changes, played out on live television, may look orderly and seamless to outside viewers.

The impeachment process had many fans interested as the two houses of parliament, the courts and the executive branch appeared to fulfill their roles following a carefully laid out legal process.

But for many Kenyans, it has been a rollercoaster ride that has brought radical views across the country.

At first there was a feeling of betrayal and disappointment especially in Gachagua’s hometown in Mount Kenya, but on Friday morning this was replaced by a feeling of acceptance as the man chosen to replace him, Kithure Kindiki, is from the same area.

Mount Kenya played a major role in Ruto’s defeat of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the hotly contested 2022 presidential election.

Odinga was running with the powerful former Minister of Justice, Martha Karua, who hails from the region, and was supported by Kenyatta, the outgoing president at the time, who was also present.

But in this event, Ruto, accompanied by Gachagua, won in that part of the country.

In context, Kenyan politics is very regionally driven – some would say ethnic lines and Mount Kenya holds about a quarter of the country’s votes.

It is not surprising that three of the five presidents since independence – Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta – have come from this region. That is why the two frontrunners in the last presidential election – Ruto and Odinga – chose their candidates there, as they both came from other parts of the country.

So upsetting the region would be politically suicidal for a president in his first term.

But Gachagua’s efforts to consolidate his hold on the bloc proved to be his waste.

He is accused by the parliament, among other things, of promoting politics that divides the race when he was expected to be part of the nation.

He coined the phrase “usiguze mlima”, which means “don’t touch the mountain”, portraying himself as a fierce protector of the Mount Kenya region and the gateway to it.

Clips were played during the proceedings showing that the government will give priority to those areas that voted for the winning ticket, although Ruto also said the same.

Legislators elsewhere have condemned such sentiments.

Ruto remained silent during his deputy’s trial, despite pleas for the president to intervene, including asking for forgiveness “if [Gachagua] he had offended him”.

There was a precedent for chaos caused when the president and his deputy did not see eye to eye.

When Kenyatta took a second term, Ruto, who was also the deputy president at the time, complained about being sidelined and persecuted.

The victim card made him loved by many, including in the political yard of the former president of the time.

But he needed more than sympathy to win the 2022 presidential election – he had to choose his running mate in Mount Kenya.

Although many expected the president to choose his longtime running mate, law professor Kithure Kindiki, Ruto pulled a surprise when he chose to run for one-term parliamentarian Rigathi Gachagua.

Kindiki was already well-known in Kenya, he was the deputy speaker before being removed from the position in a Kenyatta-instigated crackdown against Ruto’s supporters.

Members of Parliament from Ruto’s party overwhelmingly voted for Kindiki, three times, when he wanted their involvement in choosing a running mate. Gachagua came second but in the end it was Ruto’s decision.

So, the change is not surprising.

The fact that he is from “the mountain”, even though he is one of its minority races, has helped to calm the anger and betrayal.

Many people from this area who spoke on television were complaining that the election of the president should be accepted in order to avoid dividing the region.

This is what it all boils down to – moving forward with the next election three years away.

But there is no doubt that it will still support the president’s support in Mount Kenya.

The success of this plan depends a lot on Ruto’s new relationship with his bitter enemy from the last election, Odinga, his MPs and Senators who voted overwhelmingly to remove Gachagua from office.

The National Assembly also appointed Odinga’s close associate, senior lawyer James Orengo, to lead the legal team during the trial.

There was a conflict of interest here, no doubt. But it could be a poisoned vessel for Ruto.

How long a dalliance lasts is unpredictable. But it is a symptom of Kenya’s ever-changing politics.

Meanwhile, Ruto has appointed four senior members of Odinga’s party to the cabinet and is backing him for the position of the next chairman of the African Union commission.

The two men have a long political history together as allies or rivals.

In the 2002 presidential election, Ruto supported Kenyatta and Odinga supported Kibaki who won.

Five years later, Ruto supported Odinga and Kenyatta supported the incumbent, Kibaki, in the hotly contested 2007 election that sparked violence across the country.

Ruto and Kenyatta were indicted by the International Criminal Court for their alleged role in the fighting while they supported the opposing sides.

But in the next two elections in 2013 and 2017, they ran jointly and defeated Odinga.

The charges against them at the ICC were eventually dismissed due to lack of evidence.

Any unity is possible in Kenyan politics, however unlikely it is for an outsider.

All the country’s leaders are trying to do is to keep their regional or ethnic structures strong so that they can use them as bargaining chips when looking for relationships and a way to win national elections.

Both Ruto and Odinga have been working towards that for a long time, joining politics in their youth.

Both have loyal bases of support – as their recent alliance shows that Odinga’s supporters are completely changing after the politicians who opposed him almost two years ago.

Gachagua had hoped to achieve the same title, but his ambition has now consumed him.

Challenging his trial in court and if successful, could give him political support. Otherwise, the law bars him from running for office for at least 10 years.

This kind of politics is a long game. At 59, Gachagua is late and his future is uncertain.

He may be relegated to political indifference or he may return to the field – as Ruto’s rival or aide.

Although it looks like a painful divorce, as the president is moving on quickly, no one in Kenya would be surprised to see him shaking hands and smiling on national television with his former deputy who he is now parting with.

Kenya’s political landscape is an active earthquake zone – the tectonic plates are constantly shifting and anything can happen.