Follow the Money: Understanding FEMA’s disaster budget after Hurricane Milton

It is difficult to understand money when it comes to natural disasters.

Does FEMA have enough to answer for? Will residents get money after their cars, home, business, town are destroyed by floods? Will Congress authorize additional categories of disaster relief — both in the near term and down the road.

So, let’s follow the money.

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FEMA’s “emergency needs” fund and the Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) have nearly dried up since Congress approved a temporary spending bill to keep the government from shutting down in late September. Lawmakers gave FEMA more than $20 billion to reload the DRF, which was down to about $1 billion and replaced in September.

Congress restored the DRF because it was prudent to do so. Lawmakers had to return to Washington in an emergency session in the late summer of 2005 to fix the DRF after Hurricane Katrina. Front-loading the DRF by $20 billion this year would be enough to tide FEMA through any natural disaster until Congress returns in mid-November.

That’s why FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell signaled that things were going well with FEMA money.

In the meantime.

“I have enough money and resources to support the ongoing response to Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton,” Criswell said. “We thought we would go into emergency funding in December or January. I need to check that every day to see if I can wait that long.”

That’s why House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has rejected calls to suspend Congress to deal with hurricanes. President Biden, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre insisted that Congress return earlier than scheduled. The House and Senate are in recess until after the election in mid-November.

Regardless of how severe both of these storms are, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Congress comes back to replenish the FEMA fund. Yes. It is good politics for the President, the Mayor and the legislators of the affected areas and others to urge the leaders of the Congress to call the House and the Senate to Washington. It gives the illusion of exhausting all options. And, if Johnson or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., doesn’t call people back, those from the other party may suggest they don’t respond or take the damage as seriously as they should.

Furthermore, Congress probably doesn’t have to go back into session until November 12. The DRF is pretty much full. Only something as catastrophic as a thermonuclear war could drop the DRF to zero before next month. So withdrawing the fund immediately – which requires Congressional action – is impossible.

When lawmakers returned from a dramatic, emergency, witching hour session in 2005 to restore FEMA funding after Katrina, it did so with a skeleton crew. A few lawmakers came. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., approved the bill on the floor after a few quick words and “unanimous consent.”

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There are three ways for the House and Senate to vote. A roll call vote where each Member is recorded as yes or no. “The voice vote.” This is when those who agree shout “yes” and those who oppose shout “no.” The loud side (supposedly) wins. Then there is “unanimous consent.” This is when the bill comes to the floor and the Member simply asks to pass the bill (often in the Senate). If all Members agree, the bill is passed. But if there is one objection, everything stops. The bill is dead.

Passing an emergency hurricane relief bill with fewer people may have worked just after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. But American politics now takes on a very different dimension than it did 19 years ago.

In late March 2020, Congress attempted to approve a staggering $2.3 trillion aid package as the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged the planet. Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution states that “A majority” of the House and Senate “shall constitute a Quorum to do Business.” But the House and Senate conduct business all the time without a proper quorum. It’s usually not a problem as long as no one is pressing the issue.

When the COVID bill came to the floor of the House, leaders insisted on dividing the community. The intention was to approve the bill by unanimous consent or voice vote. Formal registration would require all 435 members of the House to come to the floor at the same time. Not an ideal situation in the early, dangerous days of the pandemic.

However, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., wanted to “make a point of order” that the House does not have a quorum and demand a vote. Even former President Trump came under fire for Massie, tweeting that the Kentucky Republican was “too good” and should be kicked out of the GOP.

Former Rep. Anthony Brown, D-Md., presided over the vote. He quickly counted the members present. Both the majority and the minority constitute a means of bringing a greater number of Members into the chamber of the House to represent a quorum. Some materialized and spread on the ground. Some were seen from the balcony of the public viewing gallery which was closed at the time.

For Brown, that was enough. A quorum was present. He allowed the bill to pass without a roll call vote.

In today’s toxic environment, it’s hard to believe that lawmakers in both parties won’t protest if leaders try to call the House and Senate back to Washington for an emergency vote, alas, Katrina. Even if it’s disaster relief, some will talk about spending more money. They may accuse the leaders of trying to stop the measure without adequate testing. The 2020 coronavirus package vote points to potential problems unless all lawmakers are reminded that they will debate and vote on emergency spending.

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Then there is the question of offsets.

Republicans who stand in the way of both hurricanes certainly want the federal government to send disaster relief to the affected areas. But deficit hawks will demand payment before approving new spending.

“We definitely have to take it to other places where the government doesn’t need to spend money,” said Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., on Fox. “There are places where our government spends money that it shouldn’t be. It’s just pet political agendas.”

But what one Member considers a pet project is another waste of money. Congress will slaughter someone else’s ox if it takes this approach.

As we often say, it’s about the math.

“Tell me where you can get votes to do that?” asked a senior House Republican source familiar with the spending process. “That’s not going to happen. That’s not going to happen.”

The federal government is already in Fiscal Year 2025 and no top spending number has been agreed upon. So that makes it difficult to find offsets.

So the end of disaster relief?

“This will just go into the credit card,” said the source.

Here’s what to watch in the coming days:

There will be clamor for Congress to return to session. President Biden wants Congress back. Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution states that the President “may, at extraordinary times, summon both Houses, or either of them.” However, both the House and the Senate are not in a proper state of parliament to recall the president. The House and Senate are “not adjourned.” Technically “on term,” they meet at regular intervals of three days with only one or two Members present until after the election.

Also, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., intends to bring Criswell before his panel in mid-November for a hearing.

Finally, Congress will struggle to fix the National Flood Insurance Program’s funding and help the Small Business Administration have enough money to help hurricane victims. Mayorkas said he has always known the flood plan was “the best.”

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There is a lot of money to follow in the coming months when it comes to two disasters. Was it too much? Too little? Did they spend it in the right places? Was it used quickly? Little by little? And inevitably, lawmakers will find something went wrong.

The storms may have passed. But storm clouds on Capitol Hill about the federal response are still emerging.