Hurricane Milton’s onslaught is a potentially devastating threat far beyond the Tampa Bay region

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) – Two weeks ago, Hurricane Helene “spared” the Tampa Bay region from a direct attack, but the storm’s impact still caused extensive damage, flooding homes, drowning people who decided to stay near the coast and leaving large piles of debris on the side of the roads.

Now that Hurricane Milton, a very powerful storm, is headed straight for the same area, what can residents expect?

“Even worse. It’s terrible,” said former Emergency Management Director Craig Fugate, a Florida resident who ran the state’s emergency management division.

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Cities near the mouth of Tampa Bay saw some of the worst hurricanes on record during Helene even though the storm made landfall more than 100 miles (161 kilometers) to the north. Forecasters now say the low-lying area could be hit with 15 feet (5 meters) of storm surge.

“This is not water that rises slowly. This is fast moving water with waves. It’s like a battering ram,” said Fugate. “You just don’t want to be in that place. That’s how we lost many lives in all those surgical areas where people could not get out. They drowned or were crushed by their houses falling on them.”

What is a storm surge?

Storm height is the rate at which the sea level rises above its normal level.

Just as the strong winds of a hurricane do not involve the force of even stronger winds, a hurricane attack does not involve the height of the waves above the normal level of the sea water itself.

The surge is also higher than normal at the time, so a 15-foot (5-meter) storm surge with 10-foot (3-meter) storm surges can easily level buildings, topple bridges and flatten anything in its path.

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How would it affect the west coast of Florida?

The west coast of peninsular Florida contains the Tampa Bay region, although it is not just the city of Tampa that is at risk. Petersburg and densely populated islands in the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the harbor. And the threat from the hurricane extends about 150 miles (241 km) to the north in the Big Bend region and more than 150 miles (241 km) south to Naples and the Florida Keys.

Milton will have a big impact wherever he lands, but the worst surgery will be south of Milton’s eye. If that includes Tampa Bay and the 3.3 million people who live in the region, the flooding could be catastrophic. The region has not had the direct impact of a major hurricane in over 100 years.

If it lands south of Tampa Bay, cities like Sarasota, Venice, Fort Myers and Naples could be devastated just two years after Hurricane Ian wreaked havoc, flooding homes and businesses and making bridges on barrier islands impassable.

What will happen to the debris still on the ground after Helene?

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State and local governments are moving as quickly as possible to remove hurricane tree limbs, furniture, appliances and other debris left in large piles after Helene. But they won’t remove everything.

While state and local officials fear that Milton’s wind and surge could turn the debris into deadly explosives, Fugate points out that it won’t kill anyone if they come out and that property damage will be worse even without the debris being blown or washed away.

“I feel like everything that’s still there is going to be trash and you won’t be able to sort it out,” Fugate said. “If you have enough water to move that stuff, it will move houses, cars and other things.”

But the storm can be weak, right?

Sure, Milton may weaken from a Category 5 to a Category 3 before landfall, but that won’t make much of a difference when it comes to storm damage.

“The wind has no memory, the storm does.” “So, what the storm does on the day will have a big impact on the storm’s attack,” Fugate said. When that energy is in the water and you push it, even if you see it disappearing, it doesn’t really change.

Also the area where Milton heads has a large number of creeks, canals and rivers that can cause problems beyond the nearby coast.

“This is the type of storm that a lot of people are adjusting to in the field and track and they need to listen to the local weather offices and the hurricane center about the impact,” Fugate said. “Storm outbreaks are not tied to wind, they are relative.”

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