Bitcoin is on the verge of a historic breakout, topping just under the much-anticipated $100K. After rising more than 8% since the beginning of the year, the leading cryptocurrency has attracted the attention of investors and analysts alike. While the market remains cautiously optimistic, all eyes are on BTC to confirm its next big move.
Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared some smart data on X, revealing that 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently profitable. This key metric highlights the strength of BTC’s recent rally and underlines the widespread optimism in the market. Adler notes that such high profit levels are often accompanied by bearish market conditions, fueling expectations of a break above $100K.
The psychological and technical significance of the $100K mark cannot be overstated. A decisive move above this level would signal the start of a new phase of the BTC bull cycle, inviting new capital and sparking renewed enthusiasm throughout the crypto space. However, as the price consolidates, investors are waiting for careful confirmation.
Bitcoin Bull Cycle Looks Strong
Despite the uncertainty and negative sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s failure to break the $100K mark, the current market cycle remains strong and powerful. BTC continues to hold key demand levels, reinforcing its bullish formation. Lateral consolidation, which is often misunderstood as a stop, is essential in setting up a major move, allowing the market to build momentum.
Senior analyst Axel Adler shared insightful data on X, highlighting the market’s resilience. Currently, 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is profitable, a strong indicator of market health. According to Adler, if the current cycle avoids “black swan” events-unexpected and disruptive events-the market can follow a path similar to the bull cycle of 2017. During that period (symbolized as “blue square #1”), Bitcoin showed a bullish trend with a small pullback, maintaining the 80% metric level.
Adler also appeared in the 2021 cycle (blue square #2), suggesting it would have followed a similar path if not for the disruptive effects of China’s mining ban. The event temporarily disrupted the upward trend, and emphasized how external shocks can affect market volatility.
With Bitcoin trading below $100K, its current pattern shows a healthy cycle ready for further growth. Investors are carefully looking to break out above this psychological barrier, which could signal the beginning of the next bullish phase. With strong fundamentals and minimal disruption, Bitcoin’s path forward looks very promising.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels of Expenditure
Bitcoin is trading at $99,100 after a strong rally from the 4-hour 200 moving average at $98,299. The price also found support at the 4-hour 200 EMA, an important technical indicator that shows strength in the short term. This jump has left investors optimistic about the potential for bullish continuation in the coming days.
If BTC manages to break above the crucial $100K mark, it will pave the way for a major rally in an unspecified area. A confirmed breakout at this psychological and technical level is likely to attract significant buying pressure, further strengthening Bitcoin’s momentum.
However, risks remain. Should BTC fail to recover $100K in the near term, the market may enter a long-term consolidation phase, testing investor patience and allowing capital to accumulate. Failure to maintain the current bullish formation may also lead to a deeper correction, which may review lower support levels.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView