Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Bookies will tell you that NFL Week 18 odds are among the trickiest to bet on. This is because most sports have teams with different levels of motivation.
But that’s not the case for the Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions.
All the NFC marbles are on the line, with the No. 1 seed at stake Sunday night in the Motor City.
“We expect this to be one of our highest betting games of the year. It’s something we like to see at this point. It’s the last game of the regular season, and it’s a really competitive game,” Caesars Sports’ head of football commercials said. Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors give their insights on Vikings vs. Lions, and a key clash on FOX between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, as we enter NFL Week 18 betting.
Sunday Night Showdown
As noted throughout the season, the Lions are not only among the best teams on the field but also among the best punters. Detroit is 14-2 straight up (SU) and 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
In fact, the Lions have been a good bet since mid-November 2022, going 36-10 SU/34-11-1 ATS in their last 46 games. So it’s no surprise to see the Lions as 3-point favorites at home in Sunday’s game at 8:20 pm ET.
Surprise: Underdog Minnesota, like Detroit at 14-2 SU/11-4-1 ATS, is drawing the attention of bettors as the weekend approaches.
“We’re seeing a lot of action from the Vikings so far,” Feazel said. “This is also the highest number of 56, one of the highest numbers of the year. But they still bet the Over. This should be a very competitive game.”
NFL Rocks on FOX
Commander vs. Cowboys kick off at 1 pm ET Sunday on FOX. Washington (11-5 SU/10-5-1 ATS) has already clinched the NFC Wild Card bid. But Jayden Daniels & Co. they want to keep the number 6 seed.
Dropping to No. 7 would mean a trip to Philadelphia for Super Wild Card weekend. Bettors are playing that angle so far at Caesars.
“There’s a lot of money for the Commanders to come,” Feazel said, noting that Washington has moved up to 6.5-point favorites, after being down 3. “The action of the Commanders shows that initiative.”
Dallas (7-9 SU and ATS) is wrapping up a disappointing and injury-riddled campaign.
“But what we need to be aware of is that the Cowboys are not giving up. They are looking to outplay their opponents,” said Feazel.
Nick’s Week 18 Tiers: The Detroit Lions = Steve Nash’s Phoenix Suns
NFL Sharp Side
Expert bettor Randy McKay sees the potential pitfalls of betting on NFL Week 18 odds. But he’s in three games, including Saturday night’s Bengals-Steelers contest.
McKay plays Cincinnati as a 1.5-point road favorite.
“I liked the Bengals in the first game, a 44-38 loss,” McKay said, referring back to Cincy’s Week 13 3-point home favorite against Pittsburgh. “I feel like the Bengals will bounce back here, against a Steelers team that is depleted and likely resting their starters.”
McKay is also on Sunday’s Chiefs-Broncos matchup, with several options: parlay for Kansas City +10.5 and total points under 40, if allowed; or two straight bets, one on Chiefs +10.5 and the other on Under 40.
“There’s an overreaction here, and Kansas City is playing copies of itself,” McKay said, pointing to Patrick Mahomes and others sitting outside. “It’s still a competitive game, and the weather can be windy.”
Finally, McKay is in the final game of the regular season, the Vikings vs. Lions, taking Minnesota +3.
“The Rodney Dangerfields get no respect. This is about the same line when Green Bay went to Detroit four weeks ago and it was covered,” McKay said, pointing to the Packers being billed as 3.5 underdogs in a 34-31 loss. “Minnesota was ahead [late] in the first matchup, where Detroit has all hands on deck. Now, Minnesota is on the edge, with a few injuries. “
In Week 7, Minnesota was a 1-point favorite against Detroit and lost 31-29 on a second field goal.
Mile High Matchup
The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos is another important matchup in the Week 18 NFL odds — at least for one team.
Denver (9-7 SU/11-5 ATS) wraps up the final AFC wild-card bid with the win. Kansas City (15-1 SU/8-8 ATS) already has the No. 1 seed. 1 locked into this meeting at 4:25 pm ET on Sunday.
The Chiefs rest Mahomes, among others, Carson Wentz who starts at quarterback. Not surprisingly, that led to the Caesars opening the Broncos at -8 (-115), and the spread shot up to -11 on Tuesday.
As of Thursday night, it’s Denver -10.5.
“This is the last straw for the Broncos. Win and they’re in the corner,” Feazel said. “But this is the NFL. We saw last week that the Giants didn’t play well and they couldn’t run easily. Then they beat the Colts.
“Even the backups don’t run out of power.”
And bettors don’t think Wentz & Co. it will just lie down against the team’s opponent.
“We see a lot of the Chiefs moneyline. You’ll never see the Chiefs at +430,” Feazel said of KC’s odds for the upset, where a $100 bet will earn you $430 ($530 payout). “We see the Chiefs betting, the line is full on purpose. The B-squad and the Broncos need this.
“But Carson Wentz is not Zach Wilson. Wentz is a successful QB who knows how to play. I will not rule out the Chiefs in any way.”
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Steel City on Saturday night
Cincinnati Bengals vs. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a lot on the line, too, at 8 pm ET on the first Saturday. The Bengals are clinging to the slimmest of playoff hopes. The Steelers are already in the postseason, but they want to secure a lucrative wild card seed, at the very least.
“Another meaningful game, where both teams need to win,” said Feazel. “The Steelers need to win because the 5 seed is a desirable seed. They want to play No. 4 Houston, instead of the Ravens.”
The point spread goes in favor of the Steelers, opening at Bengals -3 and sitting at Bengals -1.5 (-115) on Thursday night. But the action goes to the favorite.
“We’re seeing a lot of money from the Bengals,” Feazel said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting area. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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